TCU
vs.
Iowa State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
12/3/14
This is TCU’s last obstacle of the season and it isn’t much of one. The one-loss Horned Frogs return home to close out their regular season against two-win (winless in Big 12) Iowa State. The Horned Frogs are a heavy -33 point favorite at 5 Dimes and betonline.
Believe it or not, but this Game was close last season. Sure, the circumstances were different and the spread was only seven points, but TCU only won 21-17 in Ames. This Game figures to be much different to say the least.
The main question revolving around TCU these days isn’t whether they are going to win this Game, it’s where they will end up in the College Football Playoff rankings. They are currently above Baylor, but if the Bears take down Kansas State this weekend, will that bump them ahead of the Frogs? TCU’s only loss of the season came on the road at Baylor, in which they blew a 21-point Fourth quarter lead to lose 61-58. TCU is 9-2 ATS this season with those two non-covers coming in a tough road Game at West Virginia and against not-so tough Kansas.
TCU has won everything that has been thrown their way, outside of that Baylor Game. They also padded their resume with home wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State.
As for Iowa State, there’s not a whole lot of nice things to say about them outside of the fact that they have given some teams trouble. Surprisingly, Kansas was not one of them. The Cyclones battled Kansas State (32-28), Texas (48-45) and Texas Tech (34-31). Even against West Virginia last weekend, the Game was within reach going into the Fourth quarter. Considering they were blown out by Kansas in their last road Game, it’s going to be a stretch for them to compete at TCU.
Starting with the Cyclones, they struggle on both sides of the ball. Their defense is giving up 37 points per Game and hasn’t stopped anyone below 30 points since their win at Iowa. against the top teams, they are a porous unit. Offensively, ISU is hit or miss and that starts with quarterback Sam B. Richardson. He’s been OK, but 18 TDs and 8 INTs for the year aren’t going to cut it, especially when the ground Game averages 3.8 yards per carry. Aaron Wimberly isn’t a terrible running back, but his numbers (770 total yards, eight TDs) definitely don’t stand out.
TCU actually hasn’t been all that consistent on the defensive end. They did allow 30 points at Kansas a couple weeks ago. However, they are at home for this one in their regular season finale. This group should be pumped up in front of the home crowd, which isn’t good news for ISU.
With a good Game here, it wouldn’t be surprising for quarterback Trevone Boykin to be a Heisman finalist. On the year he has 34 total TDs (26 passing) and six interceptions. He’s completing less than 60 percent of his passes, but his legs (598 rushing yards) make him a dual threat. Running back B.J. Catalon is still beat up, but Aaron Green has filled in just fine so there’s nothing to worry about there. TCU should have their way running the ball against ISU and that’s all they need.
TCU is the better team, but will they pound the points on and cover those 33 points?
The Cyclones have not covered in Four straight Games and are an interesting 0-7 ATS in their last seven after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous Game. The Horned Frogs have covered in Four straight home Games and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 overall.
TCU is going to want to state their case for the final 4 by piling up the points in this one. We’re not so sure they’ll cover the big number but we’re sure they’ll try like hell. Our model thinks TCU can approach the total in this one all by themselves, so we’ll go ahead and go OVER 67.5.