Tennessee
vs.
Georgia
SEC
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/27/14
Georgia is looking to get back on track in the SEC after having to sit with an 0-1 record for the past week. Two home Games should help against two of the worst projected teams in the conference. However, Tennessee won’t be an easy task coming off a bye week. The Bulldogs are still large -17 point home favorites 5 Dimes sportsbook.
The Bulldogs got the taste of a loss out of their mouths last weekend with a simple 66-0 win over Troy, a Game they were leading by 45 at half time. Running back and Heisman hopeful Todd Gurley only had six of the team’s 39 carries if that says anything about how the Game went. It was nice for Georgia after having two tough matchups to start the season.
The Volunteers are almost in line with what bettors predicted early on. OUtside of their nice 38-7 opening-Game win against Utah State, while they have not covered in their next two, the spread has been close. No one expected Tennessee to beat Oklahoma, but that doesn’t mean they were okay with the 34-10 loss. Justin Worley struggled for most of the Game and probably had the worst Game of his collegiate career, completing less than 50 percent of his passes for one TD and two INTs, with a pick-six capping the Game off in the Fourth quarter.
As double-digit dogs in the last two meetings between these teams, the Volunteers have covered both keeping the Bulldogs within striking distance. In fact last year, Georgia needed a last-second touchdown to tie the Game, and they eventually won in overtime. Georgia rushed for 238 yards on 6.4 yards per carry, all without Todd Gurley. They will likely lean on the run Game behind Gurley and company in this one as the Bulldogs are averaging a ridiculous 7.7 yards per carry as a team this season.
Up to this point, there’s no reason to think Tennessee can stop Georgia’s run Game. And so far, Hutson Mason has been respectable, doing what has been asked of him. Stopping the run Game is going to be the main problem for the Volunteers, but much like last year’s Game, Georgia’s deficiencies on the defensive end could open up for a Volunteers cover, especially with the large spread.
Jalen Hurd (209 yards) and Marlin LAne (137 yards) have been solid in the running Game and will be important for the Volunteers to get something going. The Vols rushed for 189 yards in last year’s meeting and need to hit near that mark again. Worley’s main goal will be not to throw the Game away, like with his two interceptions against the Sooners.
If Georgia is leading in the second half, expect them to pound the round Game with all three running backs, much like what they did against Clemson earlier in the year when they scored three Fourth-quarter touchdowns.
The Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road Games and 1-4 ATS in their last five Conference Games. The Bulldogs are only 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Games and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 overall. Tennessee has covered in Four of the last five meetings in Georgia.
This series is historically as close as it can get and stands at 20-20-2. Considering how much better Georgia has been the last few years, yet how close the Games with Tennessee have been, decided by 8, 7 and 3, we see no other way to look than with the Vols. Tennessee +17 or better