Tennessee
vs.
Oklahoma
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/13/14
A lot of people are riding Oklahoma this season and that’s most evident in the line for this Game in which the Sooners opened as -20.5 point favorites over the Volunteers at Sportsbook.ag. Both teams didn’t have much competition in their first two Games and both are 2-0, although only 1-1 against the spread.
The Sooners used a power running attack in their first two Games to dominate en route to 444 yards and nine touchdowns. However, that may have to change in this one against a better defensive line. That’s where quarterback Trevor Knight comes in, who hasn’t had to do a whole lot yet for OU. He has 552 yards and three TDs, but still a mediocre 58.8 completion rate.
Tennessee has already faced two dual-threat QBs and handled them fairly well. They stopped Chuckie Keeton in their first Game which is never easy and contained Fredi Knighten in their next one. OU’s trio of RBs and Knight will be a tougher challenge for obvious reasons. While Oklahoma shouldn’t run all over the Volunteers, they should find plenty of room, but it may come down to what Knight can do in the passing Game if OU is going to cover.
Knight’s favorite target is Sterling Shepard (226 yards, two TDs), but someone else is going to have to step up here. Tennessee isn’t going to let one receiver beat them consistently throughout the Game.
On the other end, the Sooners have been solid on defense, but it’s hard to gauge just how good they are with the level of opponents so far. The Volunteers are led by an inexperienced quarterback in Justin Worley, but he’s still a senior and has seen the field plenty of times throughout the years. Worley has an arm on him and without a true top wide out, has spread it out evenly so far for 520 yards and five touchdowns.
Probably the biggest hurdle for Tennessee will be trying to run the ball on the Sooners, something they haven’t really done too well yet. They are averaging only 3.3 yards per carry and that’s not going to cut it against a team like Oklahoma. If they have to rely on Worley to do everything, it could be a long day, because Oklahoma could sit back and feast on him.
The Vols desperately want to get back to being relevant once again on the national scene. The Sooners never stopped being relevant. This will be a tremendous measuring stick for the Tennessee program. This line keeps drifting back and forth between +20.5 and +21. That’s key. Our Model, which is still relying on data from last season, predicts a 34-17 final. We’ll take a stab at the Vols at +21 or better.