Tennessee
vs.
Ole Miss
College Football
Free Pick
10/18/14
Tennessee is still looking for their first SEC win and it’s unlikely it will be coming this week, or even in the next few weeks for that matter. Ole Miss is rolling at the moment and has a perfect Schedule the rest of the way. For this one, the Rebels are -16.5 point home favorites with a total of 46.5 which can be found at Sportsbook.ag
The last time these teams played was in 2010 and the Volunteers won 52-14, so we can throw previous matchups out the window.
Before the season, and even a couple weeks into the season, Tennessee was looking like a sleeper in the SEC East. The division was there for the taking, but after losses to Georgia and Florida, those hopes are gone. The Volunteers could do nothing on offense against the Gators and it cost them in a 10-9 Game. That put them out of the East running, especially with an upcoming Schedule of Ole Miss, Alabama and South Carolina.
The Rebels have been a different story, carving through opponents looking like one of the best teams in the country. We were impressed after a 4-0 start, but after a comeback vs. Alabama and overall domination against Texas A&M, we now realize just how good this team can be. With home Games against Auburn and Mississippi State remaining, the Schedule plays to their advantage as well.
Tennessee’s immediate problem will be scoring on this defense. The Rebs have contained, for the most part, every offense they have faced so far and the Vols already struggle. Justin Worley is having an okay season, but he hasn’t done enough to win the close Games. As seen in his zero touchdown, two interception performance against Florida. Combine that with a run Game that can’t get anything going and you have a problem. As a team, the Volunteers are averaging just three yards per carry and leading RBs Jalen Hurd and Marlin LAne only have three total TDs. Something will have to change in this Game for them to compete.
In addition to the dominant Ole Miss defense, Bo Wallace is in the midst of the best season of his career. The Rebels do have some holes on the offensive end, but when needed it seems Wallace gets the job done. He’s completing 68.5% of his passes to go with 15 TDs and six INTs. He and LAquon Treadwell have hooked up for numerous big plays. It’s their running Game that hasn’t done much with leading RB Jaylen Walton only at 287 yards and three touchdowns.
The Volunteers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Conference Games and only 1-4 ATS in their last five Games on field turf. The Rebels are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 overall and 3-0-1 in their last Four home Games. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, but that stretches all the way back to 1997.
This is no doubt turning into a very special season for Ole Miss. This team is for real, particularly their defense. That being said, we’re not so sure this is a spot where they extend the margin. The Vols have a defense of their own and are a team that we feel, will be gradually on the rise over the next few years. When a team is gradually on the rise, they generally take some baby steps. Baby steps such as playing the #3 team in the nation tough.
Ole Miss wins this one, we’re just not convinced it will be by enough for the cover. However, the Under may be worth a look here as this looks to be a 24-10 type of a Game where defense on both sides of the ball stands out. Ole Miss/Tennessee UNDER 46.5