Texas A&M
vs
Alabama
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/18/14
These teams aren’t who we thought they were. At least that’s been the case for the last couple weeks. After being underrated for the first Game, Texas A&M quickly went to overrated and has only covered one in the last Four Games while Alabama continues to hold the overrated tag with a 1-5 ATS mark for the year. That doesn’t change in this one as the Crimson Tide are -11.5 point home favorites here at 5 dimes sportsbook, down from an opener of -14 with a total of 61.5.
The Aggies were put on a pedestal after their 5-0 start that includeda road win at South Carolina and an overtime win against Arkansas. However, back-to-back losses against the now No. 1 and 3 teams in the country has them reeling. Did they lose those Games because of the level of competition or were they just overrated?
The Tide also lost to Ole Miss, but on the road and they could have easily won that Game. A one-point win against Arkansas showed more of their faults though. What team is going to prevail in a matchup that has been one of the best ones over past two years?
Texas A&M has covered in two straight meetings as they have been 8 and 13.5 point underdogs. Things are different for both teams now though, so it’s hard to compare to those Games as both teams have new quarterbacks that play a bit different.
After a 5-0 start, Aggies fans were rejoicing Kenny Hill and all but forgot about Johnny Manziel. However, it’s been their defense once again that has this team struggling giving up a combined 83 points in their two losses. There’s no doubt Hill’s numbers have been great, but much like Manziel’s final year, it doesn’t matter when the defense can’t make stops. Not to mention this offense can’t seem to get their running Game going. They have 15 rushing TDs, but against better teams this group hasn’t done much, especially after 54 rushing yards against Ole Miss.
Hill has been asked to pass it a lot over the last couple weeks because they’ve gone down early. He has attempted 115 passes for 6 TDs in the last two Games, but also has 5 interceptions. When you pass so much, interceptions are inevitable. The good news is that Bama’s weakness is in their pass defense, but it will still be important to keep the defense honest by rushing the ball. As long as Hill isn’t required to throw it 50-plus times again, A&M should be in this Game.
On the other end, Alabama is having plenty of problems. Many thought the offense was improving, but now they have only scored 31 points in the last two Games, and that includes 14 against a bad Arkansas defense. Their running Game surprisingly didn’t get going against the Razorbacks with only 32 carries for 66 yards. Without the running Game, the Tide are not the same team. Expect them to try and regain that edge in this Game behind T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.
Blake Sims is having a respectable season as Bama quarterback, but he still has some ways to go. If the run Game is working or not, Sims hasn’t been able to do a whole lot against better defenses, although he is completing 67.8% of his passes on the year.
The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Conference Games and only 8-21 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record. The Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five Conference Games and just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Games overall.
We’re going to play this Game UNDER the total of 61.5. Contained in this posted total, are the stats from the first 4 Games of the year for A&M. That’s 3 cupcakes and a defenseless South Carolina team. But when you look at their last 3 Games, all against legitimate SEC teams, their point production dropped, particularly last week against Ole Miss. Well, the Alabama defense is every bit as good as the Ole Miss defense and playing at home makes them even stronger.
The Tide haven’t given up more than 23 points in any one Game yet. 23, 0, 12, 21, 23 and 13 are the point totals thus far. Our model predicts 52 points scored in this one which gives us enough of an edge to play this Game under. Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER 61.5