Texas A&M
vs.
Miss State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/4/14
since the start of the season, the stock of these teams has only risen. It started in Week 1 for Texas A&M with their huge win at South Carolina. Mississippi State tried to match that with a SEC road win of their own taking down LSU two weekends ago. The Aggies opened as a -1 point favorite but currently Ole Miss is now favored by -1.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Coming off a road win at LSU and an extra week of rest, Mississippi State has to like their chances here. A win would likely catapult them into the Top 10, which not a lot of people projected before the season. In fact, playing in the SEC West, many projected them to finish as one of the two worst teams.
Texas A&M was kind of in the same boat after losing Johnny Manziel. Not many expected them to challenge the top teams in the conference. Five straight wins later, those perceptions have changed as the Aggies are No. 6 in the AP Polls.
Miss. St. will hope to build on last year’s Game when they outgained A&M in the yardage department, but just couldn’t pull off the enormous upset losing 51-41 in the end, as a 19.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs controlled the lines on both sides of the field as they rushed for 299 yards and only allowed 91 rushing yards. Manziel was the difference maker in that one, and Kenny Hill will have to be again if the Aggies want to win.
Kenny Hill has stepped into Manziel’s spot and been everything A&M could have hoped for. He’s already at 1,745 yards, 17 TDs and 2 INTs. It’s like the offense hasn’t fallen off at all. Even last weekend, Hill brought the team back to Score21 unanswered points in the Fourth quarter and overtime as he tossed three touchdowns, all of impressive lengths (86 yards, 59 and 25). Their run Game will likely have problems again against the stout Bulldogs, who are coming off a dominant performance against LSU.
LSU actually almost came back, but it was all through the air. That’s exactly what Hill will have to do for Texas A&M if they want to win. The Aggies are averaging 6.1 yards per rush as a team, but they are still a fairly pass-heavy team.
On the other end, Dak Prescott is the only way Mississippi State can win. He ran for 154 yards in last year’s Game and has started 2014 noticeably improved. He already has a career-high 11 passing touchdowns and has rushed for 100 yards in three straight Games in the process. Stopping Prescott will be the Aggies’ first matter on defense. Joining Prescott in the backfield is Josh Robinson, who’s already at 485 yards, 4 TDs and 7.8 yards per tote.
Playing at home, off a bye week, the Bulldogs have the advantage here, no matter how slight it is. If they control the ground Game, they will always have a chance. It will come down to what Kenny Hill can do. Can he repeat his Game-winning performance from last Saturday, or will this be the Aggies’ first loss?
The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five SEC Games and have the same mark vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Games overall, and are an astounding 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
We think defense will play more of a role than people think here. The total is 73 and if both “D’s” step up as we anticipate, that leaves a lot of room for an UNDER. Also, A&M has played the more difficult Schedule, so while many of the predictive stats are dead even in this matchup, you have to take into account that Schedule strength. So two play here. Texas A&M +3 and UNDER 73