Texas
vs.
Oklahoma
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/11/14
This is a big Game no matter how these teams are playing, but it probably won’t feel as big with the way Texas is playing. The Sooners are sitting as -14.5 point favorites at 5 Dimes which is the biggest spread between these schools since 2005. 81% of the action thus far has been on the Sooners.
It was kind of the same situation last year when the Longhorns got a huge 36-20 upset. They were led by Case McCoy at QB and rushed for 255 yards against the Sooners. After that Game, Oklahoma slowly figured out that Blake Bell was not the answer at quarterback after throwing for 133 yards and two interceptions. OU only had one offensive TD in that Game.
This Game will probably look a bit different. Oklahoma is coming off a big loss at TCU 37-33 and looking to get back on track. Their defense has been tested in the past couple weeks as they’ve allowed 30-plus in two straight Games. That probably won’t be the case here.
Texas’ defense has come around in the last few Games since getting blown out by BYU, but their offense is holding them down scoring just 18.4 points per Game. Their wins are against North Texas and Kansas. since David Ash went down, the offense has been a mess and hasn’t really shown much with new quarterback Tyrone Swoopes. It showed against Baylor last week in a 28-7 loss when the defense held Bryce Petty in check, but the offense could do nothing.
It’s hard to see QB Tyrone Swoopes doing much in this Game. He’s completing less than 60% of his passes to go with five TDs and three INTs on the year. His only targets are basically John Harris and Jaxon Shipley. It’s going to fall on the Longhorns ground Game again to keep this Game close. Johnathan Gray (301 yards) and Malcolm Brown (246 yards) have not really done a whole lot this year and the team averages 3.7 yards per carry.
How much can this Texas defense stop Oklahoma? The Sooners are averaging over 42 points per Game at the moment. RB Keith Ford could be back which would be an immediate boost to Oklahoma’s running Game, but Samaje Perine has been just fine in replacement with 506 yards and eight TDs on the season. QB Trevor Knight has been this offense’s main problem as he’s completing less than 55% of his passes to go with five TDs and five INTs. Like Swoopes, he doesn’t spread the ball out with Sterling Shepard being a dominant target.
With the way Knight has looked, he could easily find trouble in this Game and he’s always a liability to toss an interception or two. Both teams will look to the ground Game, but that’s where Oklahoma has the edge. Coming off a loss and last year’s defeat, Bob Stoops will have his team ready.
The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six Games following an ATS loss, and going even further are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following a double-digit home loss. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big 12 Games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. There aren’t many trends in this matchup, and don’t forget this Game is being played at the neutral Cotton Bowl Stadium.
We have zero interest in getting involved with the Longhorns in any way shape or form. They have been a thorn in Our side going back to last season. Sometimes you just can’t peg a team and that’s the case with Texas for us. Our numbers have the Sooners by 20 and that sounds about right. Unless the Longhorns offense suddenly puts things together this week they don’t figure to be able to match points here. Oklahoma -14.5