UCLA
vs.
Washington
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/8/14
UCLA put together its first solid defensive performance of the year last week and it resulted in a 17-7 win. The Bruins still have a shot at winning the Pac-12 South as they hold the tiebreaker over Arizona State. They are -5 point road favorites at Washington at Sportsbook.ag and betonline.
The Bruins have had a rough season compared to what their expectations actually were. Their defense has struggled and led to a lot of unusually close Games, like in wins against California and Colorado. They put it together last week against Arizona, but the offense still only mustered 17 points. Surprisingly, UCLA still hasn’t lost on the road, and face a team looking for a big win.
Washington has already lost two home Games against Stanford and Arizona State. It seems like the Huskies get one upset each year playing at home and this could be that Game. However, when playing better opponents this year, the offense just doesn’t have enough to win Games.
Last year’s matchup featured two much different teams with UCLA winning 41-31. It’s hard to look at that Game as UW has a mostly new offense and new coach.
The Huskies are led by Cyler Miles at quarterback and while he does have 12 TDs and one INT on the year, he has struggled mightily in losses. The good news is that Shaq Thompson has come on as the team’s leading running back over the last two Games, going for 174 yards and a touchdown last week at Colorado. Even against ASU, he finished with 98 yards. If he can find any room, that will help Miles, at least a little bit.
Washington’s defense has been stout this year, but will have a hard time completely containing Brett Hundley and company.
Hundley has begun to use his legs a little more and it has worked, as he’s rushed for 241 yards in the last two Games without throwing an interception in the process. He’s still an accurate passer, but has had issues throughout the season. Hundley is a quarterback that has the capability of moving the ball against any defense and that is the case here. Paul Perkins (1,071 yards, 6 TDs) has been solid out of the backfield as well with Jordan Payton (783 yards, 7 TDs) in the receiving Game.
Washington may be looking for that big home win, but at the end of the day, UCLA has a big edge at quarterback and that could end up deciding this Game. against better teams and stronger defenses, Miles can’t do much, which is why they only scored 23 points in their two home losses against Stanford and Arizona State.
The Bruins are still just 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games and last five overall, but 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Huskies don’t have many trends, but are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home Games. These teams have played once in the last three years, so trends don’t mean much, especially with Chris Petersen now leading Washington.
When we compare yards per point numbers between these two, Washington would appear to have an edge as their numbers are better on both sides of the ball. In fact, if we used those numbers to make a line, Washington would be favored by about a TD. However, that’s before factoring in Schedule strength. Generally, the Schedule strength difference between two teams in the same Conference is small. However, in this spot, UCLA has played a Schedule that’s been almost a TD more difficult than Washington.
Still, after making that Schedule strength adjustment, using the ypp numbers to then make a line, the Game would be a pick em which would mean there is still some value taking +4.5 with the Huskies.
Our model agrees somewhat. When using full season data, the model says the oddsmakers got it right, predicting a 5 point UCLA win. However, when using the last 4 Games or last 7 Games worth of data, it has Washington winning straight up and losing by a point. Washington +6