UTEP
vs.
New Mexico
Week 1
College Football Pick
8/30/14
New Mexico will Host UTEP to kick off the 2014 season for both teams in what is hardly a marquee matchup for week 1 college football. That being said, the Game still has some intrigue and from a betting standpoint, it’s really not about marquee matchups. It’s about finding an edge. Mew Mexico is currently a -8 point home favorite at GTBets with a total of 66.5.
These two opened up last season against each other as well, with New Mexico winning on the road in OT, 42-35 in a Game that saw both teams with over 400 yards of total offense. Despite that OT Game, Our model, using all of last years data, predicts a comfortable New Mexico win, 51-28. The model is obviously more impressed with what New Mexico did with the rest of their season last year compared to UTEP. Now, that doesn’t mean wins and losses but rather what they did on the field and who they did it against. Both had weak Schedules, but UTEP’s was the weaker of the two.
But this isn’t last year. This is once again, the first Game of the season for both teams where opening day jitters and mistakes will run rampant. More importantly, this is two losing programs that haven’t had a winning season in quite some time. New Mexico suffered through three consecutive 1 win seasons from 2009 to 2011 and won 4 and 3 the past two seasons. UTEP hasn’t faired any better winning just 5 Games the past two seasons.
Those results simply destroy the recruiting process. Both are trying to rebuild, with New Mexico further along (by one year) in that process with head coach Bob Davie now in his 3rd year. I guess the point I’m trying to make is that these two teams played an even Game exactly one year ago. Both teams retain a good number from their offenses including the QB’s. They also both return a good number of players to their defenses, however those numbers mean little as both defenses were among the worst in the nation a year ago.
You’re asking for trouble laying points with a losing program. Doesn’t mean New Mexico can’t come out and win and cover this Game. But as a rule, I personally will never get involved with laying points with a bad team. There’s really no reason to think this Game can’t be a repeat of last years Game only this time, there’s the added revenge motive for UTEP. There should be plenty of points scored in this opening day shootout and once again in that type of a Game, give me the points. UTEP +10