Washington
vs.
Oregon
PAC-12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/18/14
Oregon is a huge favorite here, but these teams actually have the same record and the Pac-12 North is wide open at the moment. Washington looks to have figured things out with their new coach and that could make it more interesting in this contest. Still, the Ducks are heavy -20.5 point home favorites at 5 Dimes sportsbook with a total of 64.5.
The Huskies started the season slow, that’s for sure, but they have a new coach (Chris Petersen) so some of that can be expected. They eked out wins against Hawaii and Eastern Washington, but seem to have figured things out lately. They battled Stanford in a 20-13 Game and more recently demolished California 31-7 as a surprising underdog.
Oregon’s run hasn’t been as dominant as their No. 9 ranking would suggest. They got by Michigan State early on, but their Pac-12 Schedule has been anything but easy. Washington State gave the Ducks a struggle and then Arizona beat them for the second straight year. The Ducks put everything together and won big vs. UCLA at the Rose Bowl.
Oregon has won 10 straight in this matchup, but Petersen has experience beating Oregon (while at Boise State), and he’s hoping to bring that to this Game. The Ducks have covered a ridiculous nine of the past 10 matchups, with that non-win coming as a push as a 37-point favorite.
Washington leads the nation in turnover margin, but the problem is that Oregon doesn’t really turn the ball over. Marcus Mariota, always an accurate and safe quarterback, has yet to throw a pick while throwing for 17 touchdowns and rushing for five more. To stop Mariota, you need to stop him on the ground, something that Arizona did. Conveniently for the Huskies, they only allow 3.1 yards per carry and that defense will need to show up here. They won’t hold Oregon completely down, but under Petersen this is a unit that should prove to be better than the last few outings against the high-powered Ducks offense.
The problem for Washington is that they are last in the Pac-12 in total offense. However, this is by no means a deficient offense. They’ve had their struggles, but there are pieces to succeed. Quarterback Cyler Miles is still young, but he’s been solid so far with 12 total touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. It’s going to fall on him and running back LAvon Coleman to get something going. Otherwise, a cover isn’t likely because it’s almost inevitable that Oregon scores in the 30-point range.
The Huskies are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record, but 4-1 ATS in the last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Ducks are only 1-5 ATS in their last six home Games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven Pac-12 Games. And again, the Ducks have dominated this matchup in the last decade.
Nothing strong here, however, with Oregon seemingly down a notch and the Huskies showing signs of life, we’ll call for a margin in this one that’s less than the current number. Washington +21 or better