The Midshipmen of Navy (4-1, 4-1 ATS) will take to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, MD to face off against the USF Bulls (3-3, 4-2 ATS) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The home team opened as 11-½ point favorites, but the game has experienced massive line movement. They are favored by no less than 14 points at all sportsbooks and many are already granting the hook which puts them at 14-½ points.
Even still, they are getting 58% of the action. The total opened at 54-½ points and has dropped to 53-½ at nearly every bookmaker. 69% of the action is on the under. The Bulls beat the Midshipmen 52-45 when these teams last met in 2016.
Against the Spread
Both teams have rewarded bettors with a winning record against the spread as indicated by the record listed in the first line of this article. The over has hit four times and the under twice in USF games.
Navy has seen their games go over three times and remain under twice. Points will be at a premium for USF who is struggling to find an identity on offense.
Injury report
Bulls senior QB Blake Barnett is out for the second week as he recovers from a high ankle sprain. The former Alabama quarterback will be sorely missed. In his absence, freshman Jordan McCloud will start again.
Last week, he was 7/14 for 72 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. It appears the coaches are looking to keep the ball out of his hands which was easy last week when the RBs played very well. If they are stifled he might be forced to throw at which point we are going to learn a lot about this guy.
WR Keoni-Kordell Mahekau and FB Nelson Smith are listed as questionable for the Midshipmen. The beat goes on without them as the Navy offense is fairly one dimensional. There is a “next man up” mentality for the Midshipmen.
Navy’s top rushing offense is exceptional
Things are really clicking for Navy on offense. They rank #1 nationally in rushing yards and are producing 37.8 PPG. They will win most of their football games when they score like that.
They are greatly aided by the fact that their defense is allowing only 18.8 PPG. The Midshipmen should be able to clamp down even more than usual given the anemic and leaderless state of the Bulls offense.
Senior QB Malcolm Perry leads the way statistically. He is 24/37 for 489 yards and 3 TDs when passing, but as is typical for a Navy QB, he shines when running the ball. Perry is credited with 604 yards and 12 TDs on 102 attempts with a long run of 47 yards.
Bulls lucky to be 3-3
South Florida has played an exceedingly easy schedule and even so are only are playing five-hundred football. They risk exposure by a much better team like Navy. Their defense is middling at best and they will struggle to get points on the board. Barring something unforeseen, this game could get ugly.
Our Pick – Navy -14