Boston College at Notre Dame Free College Football Pick – 11/23/19

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Notre Dame has turned back into a juggernaut the past couple weeks and now has a chance to beat up on another struggling ACC team.

Boston College sits at 5-5 with two road games to close the season meaning a bowl is far from guaranteed. The Fighting Irish were -19.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 64 early in the week.

Notre Dame had a few hiccups, from losing big at Michigan to escaping Virginia Tech, but throttled Duke and Navy the last couple games, covering each by more than 20 points.

Doing that will be a little tougher in this game, especially since Boston College can actually score, averaging 33.8 points per contest. The Eagles have had defensive issues, but their offense has kept them around and the main reason they have five wins.

That’s the main test for Notre Dame and its iffy rush defense which is allowing 4.0 yards per carry and 168 yards per game. That being the case, the Irish still took care of the triple-option last week so covering this game wouldn’t be crazy.

Still, stopping BC’s ground game won’t be easy. AJ Dillon has some of the best numbers in the country, aided by the amount of carries he gets with 75 the last two games.

He has 1,451 yards and 13 touchdowns on 5.3 yards per carry and will likely get about 30 more touches in this game assuming he isn’t tired.

David Bailey will also chip in and he has 28 carries the last two games. That leaves for minimal production from quarterback Dennis Grosel, who looked better against FSU last game, but is still an inexperienced sophomore under center.

The problem is that BC’s defense has rarely stopped any relevant offense from scoring, hence the record. The Eagles are allowing almost 500 yards and 32.1 points per game to go with 4.6 yards per carry.

Considering how easy Notre Dame has beaten up on Duke and Navy the last couple weeks, it should have no problems in this matchup.

Quarterback Ian Book hasn’t been as efficient as a year ago, but he has more touchdowns (26) and loves to carve up bad defenses.

It wouldn’t be surprising if he matched the five touchdowns he had last game against Navy with Chase Claypool the biggest benefactor in the receiving game.

Of course, Book can also move the chains with his legs as he’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry and that works well with running back Tony Jones at 5.9 yards per carry.

The offense has let Book do most of the work in recent games and no matter the route they take in this one, the Irish should score at least 40 points.

Boston College could keep this game competitive as long as Dillon finds room in the ground game. If not, it could be a similar route to what happened against Navy (32-point win). 

Boston College is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a straight-up loss and the over has hit in its last five overall. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win and the under is 5-1 in its last six against the ACC.

The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these schools and the Eagles are 5-1 ATS in the last six played in South Bend.

Our Pick – Boston College +19.5