Arkansas at LSU Free SEC Football Pick Against the Spread – 11/23/19

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LSU Free CFB Pick
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LSU has a clear path to the SEC title game and it’s unlikely to be tripped up in the final two games. Arkansas fired its head coach a week ago and while that usually is a viable betting trend, it’ll be hard to back in this matchup. The Tigers were -44 point home favorites with an over/under of 71 as of Tuesday.

LSU could take its foot off the pedal, which wouldn’t be surprising, especially after it allowed 37 points to Ole Miss last week. Of course, Arkansas is worse than Ole Miss and is coming off a 45-19 loss to Western Kentucky.

The Razorbacks have been able to move the ball at times and they could have more motivation after Chad Morris was fired, but that’s still a hard thing to bet on. 

That said, while LSU has a talented defense, it has given up points in bunches to a few mediocre teams this season, Ole Miss and Vandy among them. The Tigers are allowing 3.9 yards per carry and that’s where the Hogs will attack.

Rakeem Boyd is having a pretty good season considering his team has two wins. The running back is averaging 6.7 yards per carry for eight touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards, though he hasn’t had more than 13 carries the last four games.

It’s a wonder if that will change in this game with Chad Morris no longer around. Otherwise, it doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback because none of the four options have done anything overly well. Nick Starkel leads with 6.6 yards per attempt, but he hasn’t played the last two games.

On the other side of the ball, it could be a bloodbath because Arkansas is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, 446.7 yards and 36.2 points per game. That’s a bad recipe against one of the best offenses in the country.

Joe Burrow looks set to win the Heisman, averaging 10.8 yards per attempt for 38 touchdowns and six picks, while completing 78.6% of his passes. There’s a chance he tosses five touchdowns in the first half and then sits the rest of the way, which is a worry for LSU backers.

Top wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson should feast on this defense, and the same goes for running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has a quiet 958 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.

This game will likely get out of hand early, but that could also lead to a back-door cover and another disappointing showing from the LSU defense. However, betting on Arkansas would require you to believe in one of its four quarterbacks and that won’t be easy.

Arkansas has failed to cover its last five games, and the over is 3-0-1 in LSU’s last four against a team with a losing record.

However, the under has hit in four of the last five meetings between these teams. The Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the last seven played in Baton Rouge.

Our Pick – Over 69