Duke at North Carolina Free ACC Football Pick – 10/26/19

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North Carolina started the season off hot, with big wins over South Carolina and Miami and then they went through a rough patch and lost 3 straight that included a close 1 point loss to Clemson.

They were 3-3 going into last week’s epic 6 overtime thriller with Virginia Tech where they unfortunately lost 43-41. Freshman QB Sam Howell continued to impress as he put up a monster statistical game, with 348 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Duke had a game they all want to forget, losing 48-14 to Virginia, as they allowed 5 rushing touchdowns and a 95 yard kickoff return for a score.

This game will feature the experienced senior QB in Duke’s Quentin Harris against the young freshman QB in North Carolina’s Sam Howell. Harris is the classic duel threat quarterback; he actually leads the team in passing and rushing yards.

Whereas Howell is the classic pocket quarterback, he is leading the ACC in passing yards (1,892) and passing touchdowns (20) and only 3 interceptions. Those are incredible stats for anyone let alone a true freshman. 

UNC’s offensive playmakers are all fairly young, besides the QB, their leading rusher is sophomore Javonte Williams, who has 529 yards and 3 touchdowns. 

Their leading wide receiver is junior Dazz Newsome, who is coming off a huge 9 catch game with 112 yards and 2 touchdowns. This team is talented and gaining experience I expect them to be in the hunt next season to win the ACC.

This should be a high scoring affair, as Duke averages 32 ppg and UNC averages 29 ppg. The current over under is at 53.5, Duke has scored at least 40 points on four different occasions this season and UNC is fresh off scoring 41 last week. These two offenses should stack up the points and hit the over easily. 

The last 10 matchups between these two, it has been an even 5-5 split, but Duke has won the last three, including last year’s high scoring 42-35 matchup. The spread is -3.5 in favor of the Tar heels at home.  UNC is 2-1 against the spread at home this year. All things are pointing to a close game and I would give the edge to UNC with their hot QB.

Our Pick – DUke/UNC OVER 53

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