Nebraska at Purdue Free Big 10 Football Pick – 11/2/19

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This isn’t the game FOX envisioned, but they’re out of luck and have to show two teams sporting a combined 6-10 record.

Purdue’s chances of a bowl are all but gone, while Nebraska has already secured the under on its season win total. With two more wins and a 4-4 record, the Cornhuskers were -3 point road favorites with an over/under of 58 as of Wednesday.

These teams are about ready for the season to end, but unfortunately still have four games to go. Nebraska is coming off a home loss to Indiana, while Purdue lost by 18 points at home to Illinois. No one wants to bet either of these teams, but something has to budge in this matchup.

Both defenses are bottom of the charts, allowing more than 400 yards and almost 29 points per game. Their numbers are fairly identical, but Purdue is slightly worse against the pass, though not by a significant margin. The main reason Nebraska is favored is because it can actually score.

Quarterback Adrian Martinez is set to return after missing the last two losses. It’s not like he’s having a great season, completing 60.3% of his passes for seven touchdowns and five interceptions, but he’s an upgrade over Noah Vedral.

Even though he hasn’t had much success through the air, he has 341 rushing yards and will likely carry the ball a lot with running backs Dedrick Mills and Wan’Dale Robinson.

This offense isn’t good, but has had success against bad defenses like the ones from Colorado and Illinois, and that’s the path to victory in this matchup.

Purdue’s offense has been a mess without Elijah Sindelar and there’s no telling what to get from them on a game-by-game basis. The Boilermakers went from scoring 31 points against Minnesota and 40 against Maryland, to just six last week against Illinois.

Jack Plummer was named the starter, but it’s a wonder if he’ll get pulled a little earlier if he struggles again as he’s averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. Sophomore Aidan O’Connell came in late against Illinois and led a 99-yard touchdown drive.

Plummer has at least had positives, throwing five combined touchdowns against Iowa and Maryland. The problem is that they can’t run the ball on anyone, averaging 2.4 yards per carry as a team and no matter how bad Nebraska’s rush defense is, that probably doesn’t matter.

This could be another game in which Plummer can’t move the ball or one where he throws for 300 yards and a couple touchdowns. The best thing for Nebraska is that you at least know it can score in every game against a bad defense.

Nebraska has failed to cover in its last four following an ATS loss, while the over is 10-1 in Purdue’s last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these schools, but the Boilers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.

Our Pick – Purdue -3