Oklahoma hasn’t had a true scare yet and that probably won’t happen in this game against Kansas State, who has struggled to perform consistently. The Sooners were -23.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 57.5 as of Wednesday.
The Wildcats have had their moments this year and are allowing 152.5 passing yards per game, one of the best rates in the country. However, while they’ve looked good against some teams, they also lost back-to-back games by double digits to OK State and Baylor. Then you throw in last year’s 51-14 result and it’s easy to see how Oklahoma could win in another blowout.
Jalen Hurts continues to do what he wants and it’ll be difficult for anyone in the conference to stop him, K State included. He’s completing 74.0% of his passes for 13.5 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns and three interceptions.
More importantly, he’s also leading the Sooners in rushing with 705 yards and 10 touchdowns on 8.4 yards per carry. He’s also surrounded by talent with Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon coming out of the backfield, and CeeDee Lamb and Charleston Rambo catching passes.
While they scored 34 points against Texas a couple weeks ago, they could’ve easily had 50 if it weren’t for a couple mistakes. The Wildcats may have a solid defense, but that probably won’t matter in this matchup.
All of the talk is about Oklahoma’s offense, but Kansas State’s offense will be the side of the ball that decides who covers because if K State can score, then a cover is in range.
The big thing for the Sooners is that their defense has played well, allowing less than 20 points per game, recently holding West Virginia to 14 points.
Considering Kansas State hasn’t surpassed 24 points in its three conference games, it’s possible it won’t hit that 20-point mark.
The Wildcats are the opposite of the Sooners in terms of explosiveness. Quarterback Skylar Thompson has seven touchdowns and one interception, but is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. He’s not a major threat through the air, while the ground game is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
James Gilbert has been fine rushing the ball, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, but that’s not going to be enough to stay competitive with Oklahoma. It doesn’t help that Thompson hasn’t been much of a factor rushing the ball either, outside of the 68 yards he had last game.
It won’t be easy to back Kansas State given its offensive troubles. This game could easily go the same as last year when Oklahoma did what it wanted on both sides of the ball.
The under has hit in Oklahoma’s last four road games and in KSU’s last four home games against a team with a winning road record.
However, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these schools and the Sooners are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings played at Kansas State.
Our Pick – Kansas State +24