Oklahoma State at Iowa State Free Big 12 Football Pick – 10/26/19

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Iowa State already has two losses (one in Big 12 play), yet still has an outside chance of reaching the conference title game. That’s a long shot, but either way, it can’t look ahead to the trip to Oklahoma next week. The Cyclones were -10.5 point home favorites with an over/under of 63.5 against Oklahoma State.

It’s been a long time since Iowa State was favored in this matchup. In fact, ISU broke a six-game losing streak last year in a 48-42 road win. Quarterback Brock Purdy did whatever he wanted from the start and that was enough for the upset.

This year probably won’t be as high scoring, but that’s because OK State’s offense isn’t as good. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games because their offense hasn’t done enough, scoring 62 points in the last two.

That’s good for some, but not when your defense allows more than 30 points per game. It could be another problem in this matchup because ISU has one of the better defenses in the conference, giving up 111 rushing yards and 21.3 points per contest.

Simply put, if running back Chuba Hubbard doesn’t reach 200 yards, this offense won’t score enough to win or cover. Hubbard has been awesome with 1,265 yards and 15 touchdowns on 6.5 yards per carry, but he hasn’t had more than 171 yards in the three losses.

That’s because freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders isn’t doing enough through the air, completing 62.1% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’s rushed for 457 yards, but that doesn’t matter when you’re throwing more than one interception per game. 

On the other end, there’s no reason the Cyclones can’t repeat what they did last year. They’ve been solid offensively, hitting 34 points in their last three wins, including 49 in the last home game against TCU.

Purdy is leading the way, completing 70.0% of his passes on 9.4 yards per attempt for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. Even better is that they’ve found more of a rushing attack the last two games as Breece Hall has 215 yards and five touchdowns in that period. Throw in Purdy’s mobility and another six touchdowns and this offense is humming.

If the Pokes can’t get Hubbard rolling, this could easily turn into a blowout. The Cyclones shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball at home and if Hubbard finds any resistance, it’ll be up to Sanders to move the chains through the air and that hasn’t been easy for him.

The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in ISU’s last six home games, but the under is 6-1-1 in its last eight against a team with a winning record. The Cyclones have covered in the last four meetings between these teams (all as an underdog) and the over has hit in all of them.

Our Pick – Iowa State -10.5

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