Stanford 10.5 Home Underdogs to Oregon – Free CFB Pick – 9/21/19

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Oregon opened as -8 point favorites on the road at Stanford this week in what has been one of the most lopsided games in terms of betting action, by mid-week. Oregon has drawn the majority of the play, moving this line to -10.5 with a total of 58.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook.

If you watched Stanford’s first few games, there’s probably no chance you would take them to win this game. It’s been a brutal start for the Cardinal, especially on the defensive end where they’ve given up 45 points in each of the last two contests. 

Ducks Seek Revenge

Oregon is looking for revenge after it let last year’s game slip from its fingers in a 38-31 overtime loss. The Ducks did everything right, but just couldn’t hold on for the win (the same thing happened against Auburn).

The only way Stanford can win this game is if K.J. Costello matches what he did in last year’s game, throwing for 327 yards and three touchdowns. The problem is that he hasn’t looked as good this year with new receivers as tight end Colby Parkinson (17 receptions) has been his favorite option and the head injury didn’t help, either.

Throw in a disappointing rushing attack with Cameron Scarlett averaging 4.4 yards per carry and this offense hasn’t been good enough to make up for a bad defense.

Ducks Defense May Not Matter

It’s unknown how good Oregon’s defense is, but it should be good enough to thwart the Stanford offense. The Ducks should be undefeated but let the game against Auburn get away from them.

Otherwise, they’ve dominated opposition, albeit against weaker teams. Considering how Stanford’s offense has looked against USC and UCF, there’s no reason Oregon can’t do the same.

The other problem for Stanford is that its defense has taken a major step back. It let USC’s freshman quarterback do what he wanted and then seemed to give up a touchdown almost every drive to UCF.

That’ll be a problem against Justin Herbert, who has 11 touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. He completed 26-of-33 passes for 346 yards in last year’s game, while running back CJ Verdell did the rest on the ground.

Herbert May Have Field Day

The Ducks moved the ball in every facet, but still couldn’t get the win last year. All signs point to that happening again, though this time it’ll be a win for Oregon.

The lone advantage Stanford has is that it’s at home. That has meant something in past years (won 49-7 in 2017), but that may not be the case for this team. The Cardinal beat Northwestern, but that was an ugly result against a similarly ugly team.

The over is 5-1 in Stanford’s last six conference games and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these schools. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five between them, while the Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in the last seven.

Our Pick – We don’t like the number here, laying -10.5, but Stanford simply has not shown us that they can be competitive here. Just a lean, but Oregon -10.5