Tennessee Vols at Florida Gators Free CFB Pick – 9/21/19

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gators host auburn as 3 point home dogs
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The Florida Gators are favored by -14 over the Tennessee Vols in what will be the 4th game for both teams. The current total is 49 at 5 dimes sportsbook.

Florida may have a question at quarterback but that isn’t stopping people from betting them. That’s mostly because it doesn’t matter who is at quarterback as Tennessee already has two losses to Georgia Southern and BYU. 

While Florida has a new quarterback, it’s not like it was blowing out opponents with Feleipe Franks as it struggled to beat both Miami and Kentucky. Backup Kyle Trask actually played just as good as Franks in the win at UK, though head coach Dan Mullen has already said he’d use two quarterbacks with the more mobile Emory Jones also in the mix.

Either way, it’s doubtful the line would be much higher with Franks at quarterback. They’ll likely lean heavily on Lamical Perine even if that hasn’t worked early, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Jones will help in that facet while Trask has Van Jefferson and Josh Hammond to throw to, among others. 

The Vols have good defensive numbers against the pass, but that’s what happens when your two hardest games have been against Georgia Southern and BYU. Considering they gave up at least 29 points to both of those teams, Florida shouldn’t have trouble hitting that mark.

When these teams met in Knoxville last year, the Gators benefitted from a ridiculous six turnovers, but the offense still did what it wanted, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 9.8 per pass. Of course, if you throw out those turnovers, things probably would’ve been closer which is why Tennessee isn’t a crazy bet.

The one thing the Vols have been able to do is move the ball, but again, a lot of that is because of competition. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano is completing 65.8% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt, but the ground game has been better behind Ty Chandler, who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

If they can get something out of Chandler and Eric Gray, that’d be the first step to staying competitive because once they put everything onto Guarantano, that’s when the interceptions and turnovers begin.

Florida has a good defense, but it’s already allowed 20 points to both Miami and Kentucky, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Tennessee can reach that number. If that happens, the Gators will need at least 30 points to cover and that’s no guarantee. Florida is allowing 301 total yards per game, but it hasn’t completely thwarted opposing offenses. 

This is the biggest spread between these teams since 2013 when Tennessee covered in a 31-17 loss as a 15.5-point underdog.

The Gators haven’t covered in their last four conference games and the over is 6-1-1 in their last eight following a straight-up win. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams and the over is 7-2 in the last nine.

Our Pick – Vols +14