Georgia secured its spot in the SEC Championship game after beating Auburn last week, and it has a chance to make the College Football Playoff so it can’t slip up yet. That includes this week against Texas A&M, who has won its last four games. The Bulldogs were still early -13 point home favorites with an over/under of of 45.5.
Texas A&M has won its last four, but none of those came against a team with a winning record. The Aggies haven’t beaten a good team this season, while losing to the likes of Clemson, Auburn and Alabama.
They haven’t had enough to beat better teams, but there’s no reason they can’t compete in this game. Georgia is beating up opponents with its defense and that usually leads to back-door cover possibilities, especially for potent offenses.
Georgia dominated another offense last week and is allowing just 267.2 yards and 10.5 points per game for the season. It’s allowing 2.7 yards per carry so the Aggies may have to ride Kellen Mond if they want to have a chance.
Mond hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s doing enough in this offense, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt for 18 touchdowns and six picks. He’s probably more lethal on the ground rushing for 524 yards on 7.4 yards per carry if you don’t include sacks.
Complemented by Isaiah Spiller, who is at 6.0 yards per carry, and that’s enough to beat all of the weaker teams in the SEC. However, that strategy isn’t going to work in this game, especially on the road. Against similarly elite defenses in Clemson and Auburn, they couldn’t do anything.
The Aggies scored 10 against Clemson and then added 17 fourth-quarter points to make the score more respectable against Auburn.
The best chance for an A&M cover revolves around its defense, which is more than possible. Georgia hasn’t scored more than 27 points in its last five games and a couple of those came against South Carolina and Missouri. A&M’s defense is on about the same level as those teams, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 20.3 points per game.
The Bulldogs have lacked explosiveness throughout the season which is why they rarely score more than 30 points. Jake Fromm is simply a game manager in this offense, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt for 16 touchdowns and three picks.
It’s more about giving the ball to D’Andre Swift and Brian Herrien out of the backfield. That strategy should work after Swift went for more than 100 yards against a better Auburn front last week.
There’s always a worry backing Georgia because of its offense and that’s why it’s 2-4 ATS at home this season. A&M is also feeling good about itself, though back-to-back trips to Georgia and LSU could change that mood.
The over has hit in Texas A&M’s last four games following an ATS win, but the under has hit in Georgia’s last five games overall. These teams last played in 2009 so there are no relevant trends.