This isn’t the season Texas fans were hoping for and now they’re stuck with a nationally televised game in the regular-season finale against a worse Texas Tech team. Somewhat surprisingly, the Longhorns opened as -9 point home favorites.
At a time it was a promising season, but Texas has fallen apart, losing three of its last four, scoring 31 points in the last two games.
The defense struggled early in the season and now it’s the offense that can’t move the ball. The good news is that Texas Tech has a worse defense and has been bad all season, giving up 468.5 yards per game.
While the Longhorns have struggled in recent games, that’s partly due to playing two of the better defenses in the conference (Baylor, Iowa State). It wouldn’t be surprising if Sam Ehlinger got back on track in this one and led the offense to 30-plus points.
His numbers have leveled out since a hot start, averaging 7.6 yards per pass for 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions to go with 507 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Top wideout Collin Johnson has missed the last couple games with a hamstring injury, but his absence may not matter as Devin Duvernay and Brennan Eagles should be enough for this matchup.
Running backs Keaontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson should also have a little more success against a defensive allowing 4.3 yards per carry.
While the Longhorns should score, it remains to be seen if their defense can lead them to a win by more than a touchdown because only one of their Big 12 wins has come by more than six points.
Their defense has looked somewhat better in recent games, but their numbers are still fairly similar to Tech’s, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and almost 300 passing yards per contest.
That pass defense is the main problem because the Red Raiders thrive through the air behind Jett Duffey, who is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt and has thrown for more than 330 yards in each of the last three games.
Receiver R.J. Turner has more than 100 receiving yards in the last two games, but Duffey has spread the ball around well. Running back SaRodorick Thompson should also be involved plenty with his 11 rushing touchdowns standing out.
The Longhorns may have the better team, but there haven’t been many signs that show they can beat a team by double digits. Whether it’s their offense or defense, they’ve rarely been good on both sides of the ball in the same game.
The over is 3-0-2 in Texas Tech’s last five against a team with a winning record, while Texas has failed to cover its last six Friday games. The road team has covered the last five meetings between these teams, but the Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in the last nine.
Our Pick – Texas Tech +10