This was supposed to be the Big Ten title game before the actual title game. Instead, Wisconsin pulled an Ohio State and lost in surprising fashion at Illinois last weekend. Now, the massive hype is gone. The Buckeyes opened as -14 point home favorites with an over/under of 50.
There’s no other way to go about it, but the Badgers looked ahead last weekend against Illinois and it came back to bite them. After dominating the likes of Michigan and Michigan State, they faltered the week before a trip to Columbus.
Ohio State had no issues with that and destroyed Northwestern 52-3 last Friday. The Bucks have covered their last six games and have yet to let up. Either Ryan Day is a really good coach or they remember what happened last year when Purdue trounced them and prevented them from getting to the CFP.
Prior to last week, this could’ve been one of the bigger games of the season. While it’s still big, the implications aren’t nearly as much since Wisconsin is no longer in play for the CFP.
Wisconsin’s legitimacy is under question because the trip to Illinois was its first road game since the opener so the loss could’ve been a combination of playing on the road and looking ahead.
The Badgers will have to bounce back, especially defensively. While they dominated early competition, they didn’t really play a competent offense and OSU has one of the best in the country.
Justin Fields is oddly on the outside of a lot of Heisman conversations, but with a 70.7% completion rate, 9.1 yards per attempt, 22 touchdowns and one interception, that won’t continue if the Bucks keep winning.
He continues to spread the ball to his targets with receivers Binjimen Victor, Chris Olave and K.J. Hill all active. Even with those passing numbers, they may be better at running the ball, averaging 6.3 yards per carry as a team.
Fields has ran for eight touchdowns, while running backs J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague III are both averaging at least seven yards per carry.
On the other side, it’s a similar situation for Ohio State’s defense because while it has some of the best numbers in the country, it hasn’t played an elite offense.
But even with the Illinois loss, Wisconsin’s defensive numbers are still better than OSU’s. The difference is that OSU’s offense is more dynamic than Wisconsin’s.
Wisconsin’s deficiencies were seen last week when Jack Coan threw one touchdown and one interception on 32 pass attempts. He’s had a good season, but last week was the first time facing adversity and he didn’t do enough to put points on the board.
To cover this game, the Badgers need to get Jonathan Taylor going early because if they fall behind, it’ll be up to Coan again. As for Taylor, he’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry for 957 yards and 15 touchdowns. His production will likely decide the game and OSU is allowing just 2.6 yards per carry.
It’ll be hard to go against Ohio State in this one given how dominant it has been and that it’s won the last six meetings between these teams. However, five of those six were decided by seven points or less including when they last met, the 2017 Big Ten title game, a 27-21 win for the Bucks.
Our Pick – Wisconsin +14