Baylor at West Virginia Big 12 College Football Free Pick – 10/3/20

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West Virginia will host Baylor as +2.5 point home dogs on Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12 noon est. The current posted total as of this writing on Monday is 55 at MyBookie and Betonline.

Last year Baylor won a surprisingly low scoring game 17-14 in a game that was close on the scoreboard, but not necessarily in the box score. Baylor won the first down battle 26-12 and out gained the Mountaineers 453 to 219. Baylor also held the ball for 36 minutes.

Turnovers Hurt 

Turnovers killed Baylor and the West Virginia defensive line had some success despite what the box score says. Baylor allowed 8 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss.

Here’s a quote from an article about last years game from CBS Sports:

The Mountaineers may not be all that good, but they are remarkably well-coached on defense, which has given them a shot to at least be competitive in most of their games.

So, the key to this weeks game against Baylor would appear to be the West Virginia offense. They moved the ball well last week against Oklahoma State and were actually controlling the game in the 1st half yet somehow ended up trailing 20-7 at the half.

The West Virginia defense will get it’s chance to prove they’re legit as most of the starters are back for QB Charlie Brewer and the Bears and they looked to have picked up right where they left off last year as they hung 47 on the board against Kansas.

Defensively Baylor returns just two starters and it’s hard to tell from the Kansas game how much that hurts.

While we still lean towards Baylor getting the “W” here and likely covering this small spot, we also think the UNDER may be worth a look here as well as this game could be much lower scoring than many think.

Baylor -2.5 and UNDER 55