Week 1 Free College Football Picks and Score Predictions – 8/29/20 thru 9/7/20

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week 1 college football picks
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Soon enough, sportsbooks will be posting week 1 college football lines for the 2020 season. They’ll also be posting games of the year and marquee matchups for games throughout the season.

It’s never to early to start the football handicapping process for the year ahead.

Listed below are the college football games to be played from August 29th 2020 thru September 7th 2020. For each game, we have listed a score prediction from our model, using data from last season.

In games where the bulk of both teams starters on both sides of the ball are returning, these score predictions will hold value.

In games where returning talent is far less, you’ll have to do some homework and make some judgments based on that homework.

Judging Returning Talent

We have started the homework process below by adding a chart that was presented by ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly. You can visit this page for a full explanation of the chart.

The chart looks at returning production, which is a more in depth way of considering returning starters.

Using this information to handicap early season college football is tricky. Just because a team loses many starters, it doesn’t mean they won’t be good, even better than a year ago.

You can however, make some simple assumptions. Specifically, a “good” team returning the bulk of it’s talent, will likely continue to be good. A bad team returning everyone, will likely be better.

You can use the chart below to make some adjustments to our score predictions based on common sense.

This should kick start your week 1 college football handicapping and have you ready to pounce on those juicy opening numbers once they are posted.

Saturday August 29, 2020

Notre Dame 30 vs. Navy 23 (Line on 3/16 is ND -14)

California 26 at UNLV 18

Hawaii 35 at Arizona 37

New Mexico State 20 at UCLA 49

Marshall 30 at East Carolina 24

 

Thursday September 3, 2020

Florida Atlantic 24 at Minnesota 32

UMass 21 at UConn 44

New Mexico State 16 at UAB 35

Oregon State 28 at Oklahoma State 40

BYU 10 at Utah 35 (Line on 3/16 Utah -4.5)

Clemson 48 at Georgia Tech 10

NC State 21 at Louisville 40

Rice 17 at Houston 34

Washington State 44 at Utah State 30

 

Friday, September 4

 Indiana 15 at Wisconsin 34

North Carolina 26 at UCF 33

Syracuse 29 at Boston College 35

Wake Forest 39 at Old Dominion 13

 

Saturday, September 5

 Texas Tech 46 at UTEP 17 

UTSA 10 at LSU 74

San Jose State 28 at Central Michigan 35

SMU 48 at Texas State 21

South Alabama 15 at Southern Miss 31

TCU 23 at California 19

Temple 17 at Miami (FL) 25

Toledo 21 at Tulsa 38

UCLA 34 at Hawaii 37

USC 23 vs. Alabama 45 (in Arlington, TX) (Line on 3/16 Alabama -13.5)

USF 16 at Texas 42

Purdue 24 at Nebraska 31

West Virginia 22 vs. Florida State 25 (in Atlanta, GA)

Coastal Carolina 17 at South Carolina 32

Nevada 21 at Arkansas 29

Kent State 12 at Penn State 50

Ole Miss 17 vs. Baylor 30 (in Houston, TX)

Louisiana Tech 34 at UNLV 21

Arkansas State 26 at Memphis 56

Bowling Green 5 at Ohio State 82

Buffalo 15 at Kansas State 31

Charlotte 17 at Tennessee 31 

Colorado 27 at Colorado State 28

Eastern Michigan 14 at Kentucky 35

Georgia Southern 20 at Boise State 34

Liberty 20 at Virginia Tech 39

Northwestern 11 at Michigan State 21

Miami (Ohio) 16 at Pitt 24

Michigan 21 at Washington 22 (Line on 3/16 Wash -2.5)

Middle Tennessee 22 at Duke 31

New Mexico 17 at Mississippi State 44

 

Monday, September 7

Virginia 10 vs. Georgia 34 (in Atlanta, GA)  

 

Returning Production For 2020

TEAM OVERALL OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK)
1. Northwestern 84% 88% (6) 80% (23)
2. Ga. Tech 84% 74% (39) 94% (2)
3. Houston 83% 73% (42) 93% (3)
4. ECU 83% 87% (8) 79% (26)
5. USC 82% 77% (25) 87% (7)
6. Va. Tech 82% 74% (36) 89% (5)
7. ODU 81% 80% (19) 83% (10)
8. UAB 81% 82% (14) 80% (20)
9. Oklahoma St. 80% 75% (34) 86% (8)
10. Rice 79% 63% (70) 96% (1)
11. Indiana 78% 74% (37) 82% (13)
12. Illinois 78% 86% (11) 71% (46)
13. Louisville 78% 79% (21) 77% (31)
14. Akron 78% 89% (3) 66% (57)
15. Rutgers 78% 76% (29) 79% (25)
16. Texas A&M 77% 80% (17) 74% (37)
17. Nebraska 76% 92% (2) 59% (83)
18. N. Carolina 75% 87% (9) 64% (63)
19. Coastal Caro. 75% 88% (5) 62% (69)
20. Purdue 74% 76% (32) 73% (40)
21. Texas 74% 66% (62) 82% (14)
22. Ball St. 74% 68% (60) 81% (19)
23. NC St. 74% 81% (15) 67% (56)
24. CMU 73% 70% (48) 77% (30)
25. Kentucky 73% 68% (56) 78% (27)
26. Miami-OH 73% 86% (10) 61% (74)
27. Florida St. 73% 63% (69) 83% (9)
28. Stanford 73% 71% (45) 74% (36)
29. Memphis 73% 69% (54) 77% (29)
30. Arizona 73% 66% (63) 79% (24)
31. Cincinnati 73% 69% (53) 76% (33)
32. S. Carolina 72% 72% (43) 72% (43)
33. California 72% 93% (1) 50% (105)
34. Wisconsin 72% 62% (72) 81% (17)
35. Ole Miss 71% 78% (23) 64% (61)
36. USF 71% 68% (57) 74% (38)
37. Buffalo 71% 80% (16) 62% (71)
38. UCF 71% 67% (61) 75% (35)
39. Toledo 71% 72% (44) 70% (48)
40. Marshall 71% 78% (22) 63% (64)
41. WKU 71% 53% (90) 89% (6)
42. App. St. 70% 87% (7) 53% (95)
43. BYU 70% 77% (26) 62% (72)
44. Ga. Southern 69% 80% (18) 59% (85)
45. Colorado St. 69% 76% (31) 63% (68)
46. Nevada 69% 73% (41) 65% (60)
47. Penn St. 69% 74% (38) 63% (66)
48. Pittsburgh 69% 77% (24) 60% (79)
49. UConn 68% 71% (46) 65% (59)
50. Tennessee 68% 68% (59) 69% (50)
51. Georgia St. 68% 53% (89) 83% (11)
52. Iowa St. 67% 62% (71) 73% (42)
53. Boston Coll. 67% 54% (88) 81% (16)
54. MTSU 66% 82% (12) 51% (101)
55. Louisiana 66% 65% (65) 67% (54)
56. Virginia 66% 51% (95) 81% (15)
57. Arkansas St. 65% 77% (27) 54% (93)
58. Arkansas 65% 63% (68) 68% (52)
59. Georgia 65% 50% (99) 80% (21)
60. S. Alabama 65% 70% (52) 60% (80)
61. Florida 65% 63% (67) 67% (55)
62. Boise St. 65% 54% (86) 75% (34)
63. UTSA 65% 76% (30) 53% (94)
64. TCU 65% 61% (75) 68% (51)
65. Duke 65% 56% (84) 73% (41)
66. W. Virginia 64% 71% (47) 58% (88)
67. UCLA 64% 75% (33) 53% (96)
68. Ohio 64% 51% (96) 78% (28)
69. So. Miss 64% 70% (50) 58% (86)
70. SMU 64% 75% (35) 53% (97)
71. Vanderbilt 64% 35% (122) 93% (4)
72. Arizona St. 63% 50% (98) 76% (32)
73. Kent St. 62% 68% (58) 57% (90)
74. Charlotte 61% 77% (28) 46% (116)
75. Tulsa 61% 88% (4) 34% (124)
76. Kansas St. 61% 59% (80) 63% (67)
77. New Mexico 61% 70% (49) 51% (99)
78. Auburn 61% 61% (77) 60% (78)
79. Wyoming 60% 69% (55) 52% (98)
80. Troy 60% 48% (104) 71% (45)
81. Texas Tech 59% 48% (106) 71% (44)
82. Oklahoma 59% 49% (103) 70% (47)
83. Notre Dame 59% 66% (64) 51% (102)
84. Oregon St. 58% 35% (123) 82% (12)
85. Wash. St. 58% 36% (121) 80% (22)
86. Minnesota 58% 82% (13) 33% (125)
87. Navy 58% 50% (100) 66% (58)
88. Alabama 58% 55% (85) 60% (75)
89. Oregon 57% 34% (124) 81% (18)
90. Maryland 56% 62% (73) 51% (100)
91. SJSU 56% 49% (102) 63% (65)
92. SDSU 56% 52% (92) 60% (77)
93. Ohio St. 56% 65% (66) 47% (114)
94. Fresno St. 56% 50% (101) 62% (73)
95. Temple 56% 73% (40) 38% (123)
96. Clemson 55% 60% (79) 51% (104)
97. Miami 55% 59% (82) 50% (106)
98. Utah St. 54% 51% (94) 57% (89)
99. UNLV 54% 80% (20) 29% (129)
100. Missouri 53% 43% (111) 64% (62)
101. Iowa 53% 50% (97) 56% (91)
102. Army 53% 61% (74) 44% (118)
103. Hawaii 52% 44% (109) 60% (76)
104. Washington 52% 30% (127) 74% (39)
105. Liberty 52% 44% (110) 59% (81)
106. Syracuse 52% 61% (76) 42% (121)
107. UMass 51% 52% (93) 51% (103)
108. Baylor 51% 70% (51) 32% (127)
109. FAU 51% 59% (83) 43% (120)
110. Miss. St. 51% 54% (87) 48% (113)
111. Wake Forest 50% 33% (125) 67% (53)
112. NMSU 50% 53% (91) 47% (115)
113. UL-Monroe 49% 29% (130) 69% (49)
114. NIU 49% 39% (117) 59% (82)
115. Colorado 49% 36% (120) 62% (70)
116. BGSU 47% 45% (108) 49% (109)
117. Michigan St. 46% 43% (112) 49% (111)
118. Texas St. 46% 59% (81) 32% (126)
119. WMU 46% 41% (113) 50% (107)
120. La. Tech 46% 61% (78) 31% (128)
121. N. Texas 45% 41% (114) 50% (108)
122. Tulane 44% 31% (126) 58% (87)
123. FIU 44% 30% (129) 59% (84)
124. EMU 44% 40% (116) 49% (112)
125. Michigan 43% 36% (119) 49% (110)
126. Kansas 42% 41% (115) 44% (117)
127. LSU 42% 30% (128) 54% (92)
128. Air Force 42% 46% (107) 38% (122)
129. UTEP 41% 39% (118) 44% (119)
130. Utah 37% 48% (105) 27% (130)