Alabama at Miss State Free SEC College Football Pick – 10/16/21

Mississippi State will host Alabama in SEC action on Saturday night with kickoff set for 7 PM EST. Alabama is a 17 point road favorite in this one with a total of 57.5. The game can be seen on ESPN.

With Alabama losing last week, the SEC West division could potentially be wide open. The Tide sits in 1st place at 2-1 but several other teams including Miss State are 1-1 and right on their tale.

Other teams might sense some vulnerability with Alabama. Aside from the loss last week they also narrowly got by Florida a couple of weeks ago. It hasn’t been that dominant Alabama we’re used to thus far. In their two toughest games, they lost and won by 2.

Head to Head History

10/31/2020  Mississippi State         0  +31.0  at Alabama                  41
11/16/2019  Alabama                  38  -18.5  at Mississippi State         7
11/10/2018  Mississippi State         0  +23.0  at Alabama                  24
11/11/2017  Alabama                  31  -14.0  at Mississippi State        24
11/12/2016  Mississippi State         3  +29.0  at Alabama                  51
11/14/2015  Alabama                  31  - 7.5  at Mississippi State         6
11/15/2014  Mississippi State        20  +10.0  at Alabama                  25
11/16/2013  Alabama                  20  -23.5  at Mississippi State         7
10/27/2012  Mississippi State         7  +23.0  at Alabama                  38
11/12/2011  Alabama                  24  -18.0  at Mississippi State         7
11/13/2010  Mississippi State        10  +13.0  at Alabama                  30
11/14/2009  Alabama                  31  -12.0  at Mississippi State         3
11/15/2008  Mississippi State         7  +22.0  at Alabama                  32
11/10/2007  Alabama                  12  - 4.5  at Mississippi State        17
11/ 4/2006  Mississippi State        24  +15.5  at Alabama                  16
11/ 5/2005  Alabama                  17  -16.0  at Mississippi State         0
11/ 6/2004  Mississippi State        14  +17.5  at Alabama                  30
11/ 8/2003  Alabama                  38  - 9.5  at Mississippi State         0
11/ 9/2002  Mississippi State        14  +22.0  at Alabama                  28
11/10/2001  Mississippi State        17  +10.0  at Alabama                  24
11/11/2000  Alabama                   7  + 7.0  at Mississippi State        29
11/13/1999  Mississippi State         7  + 4.5  at Alabama                  19
11/14/1998  Alabama                  14  + 3.0  at Mississippi State        26
11/15/1997  Mississippi State        32  + 4.5  at Alabama                  20
11/16/1996  Alabama                  16  -12.0  at Mississippi State        17
11/11/1995  Mississippi State         9  +10.5  at Alabama                  14
11/12/1994  Alabama                  29  - 3.0  at Mississippi State        25
11/13/1993  Mississippi State        25  +20.0  at Alabama                  36
11/14/1992  Alabama                  30  -10.0  at Mississippi State        21
11/ 2/1991  Mississippi State         7  +12.0  at Alabama                  13
11/ 3/1990  Alabama                  22  - 9.0  at Mississippi State         0

Miss State comes into this game with big question marks. They did beat the very same Texas A&M team that beat the Tide last week but otherwise they haven’t delivered. They lost to a struggling LSU team as well as Memphis and only got by La Tech by 1.

As you can see above in the head to head history, there’s a built in talent gap that exists between these two programs. It’s a series that has been dominated by Alabama. Going back to 1990, the Tide are 25-6. Alabama has won 13 straight in the series by an average score of 32-7.

We see no reason to look any other way than Alabama in this spot. The number has dipped under -17 in a few spots which we’ll gladly lay.

Alabama -16.5