Iowa State at Kansas State Free Big 12 College Football Pick ATS – 10/16/21

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iowa state at kansas state big 12 college football pick ats
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Kansas State will host Iowa State on Saturday night with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 PM EST on ESPN2. The Cyclones opened as 4 point favorites and have been bet up to as high as -6.5 as of Thursday. The total is 50.5.

This Big 12 matchup has the potential to be a highly entertaining affair with two fundamentally sound football teams.

Kansas State is 3-2 overall but unfortunately 0-2 in conference play. That gives them a pretty big, just about impossible hole to dig themselves out of in terms of making any noise in the conference. There’s 7 games to go and the only one you can pencil into the win column is their game against Kansas.

Iowa State is also 3-2 overall but 1-1 in the Big 12. That puts them in a little better position than their opponents this week, but having already played Kansas, there’s no easy games remaining.

Head to Head History

11/21/2020  Kansas State              0  +11.0  at Iowa State               45
11/30/2019  Iowa State               17  - 5.0  at Kansas State             27
11/24/2018  Kansas State             38  +13.0  at Iowa State               42
11/25/2017  Iowa State               19  + 2.5  at Kansas State             20
10/29/2016  Kansas State             31  - 6.5  at Iowa State               26
11/21/2015  Iowa State               35  + 6.0  at Kansas State             38
 9/ 6/2014  Kansas State             32  -12.0  at Iowa State               28
11/ 2/2013  Iowa State                7  +17.0  at Kansas State             41
10/13/2012  Kansas State             27  - 6.5  at Iowa State               21
12/ 3/2011  Iowa State               23  +11.0  at Kansas State             30
 9/18/2010  Iowa State               20  + 3.5  [email protected] Kansas State             27
10/ 3/2009  Iowa State               23  - 2.5  [email protected] Kansas State             24
11/22/2008  Iowa State               30  + 9.5  at Kansas State             38
11/ 3/2007  Kansas State             20  -15.0  at Iowa State               31
10/28/2006  Iowa State               10  + 5.5  at Kansas State             31
11/ 5/2005  Kansas State             17  + 7.5  at Iowa State               45
11/20/2004  Iowa State               37  +11.5  at Kansas State             23
11/ 8/2003  Kansas State             45  -18.0  at Iowa State                0
11/ 9/2002  Iowa State                7  + 9.5  at Kansas State             58
11/ 3/2001  Kansas State             42  - 4.5  at Iowa State                3
11/ 4/2000  Iowa State               10  +19.0  at Kansas State             56
 9/25/1999  Kansas State             35  -15.5  at Iowa State               28
10/24/1998  Iowa State                7  +34.0  at Kansas State             52
11/22/1997  Kansas State             28  -26.0  at Iowa State                3
11/23/1996  Iowa State               20  +20.5  at Kansas State             35
11/11/1995  Kansas State             49  -16.0  at Iowa State                7
11/ 5/1994  Iowa State               20  +26.5  at Kansas State             38
11/ 6/1993  Kansas State             23  - 7.0  at Iowa State               27
11/ 5/1992  Iowa State               13  + 0.0  at Kansas State             22
11/ 9/1991  Kansas State             37  - 4.0  at Iowa State                7
11/ 3/1990  Iowa State               14  - 6.5  at Kansas State             28

There’s no shortage of close games in this series.  A quick look at the history above shows us that most games over the past 7 years or so have come down to the wire with each team winning their share. That’s what makes last years 45-0 blow out by Iowa State stand out like a sore thumb.

Revenge Can Be Powerful

We talk about revenge all the time in our write ups. That’s because revenge plays a role in college football like no other sport, period. Revenge doesn’t work in the NFL. It doesn’t work in the NBA or college football. Hockey, perhaps.

But take a look at any college football series that’s evenly matched over the years and then find a blowout game. Then take a look at what happened the season following that blow out. You’ll find a very high winning percentage for the teams that were blown out the previous year.

Such is the setup in this spot it and it’s backed by some numbers that suggest that if Kansas State doesn’t gain revenge, they might still get the cover.

Most of our numbers have this as a field goal game or LESS. We do have a couple of sets of numbers that have Iowa State by 6. But remember, numbers can’t factor in emotion.

Give us a fundamentally sound football team that can run the ball and stop the run (both do this well), at home, on national television, with a score to settle and with numbers to back up the play and we’ll fire every time. We’ll do so knowing we’ll win at least 55 times out of 100.

Here’s to hoping this is one of those 55 wins…

Kansas State +7 -115 (available at betonline)