Louisiana Lafayette will host App State on Tuesday night to get college football rolling this week. App State is a -3.5 point road favorite in the game with a current posted total of 55. The game can be seen on ESPN2.
This game features two of the top teams in the Sun Belt conference. App State sits at 4-1 overall and 1-0 in conference play. Louisiana is also 4-1 overall, but two of those wins were in conference play, where they sit at 2-0 and in 1st place in the Sun Belt B division.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games): 12/ 4/2020 Louisiana-Lafayette 24 + 2.5 at Appalachian State 21 12/ 7/2019 Louisiana-Lafayette 38 + 6.5 at Appalachian State 45 10/ 9/2019 Appalachian State 17 + 2.5 at Louisiana-Lafayette 7 12/ 1/2018 Louisiana-Lafayette 19 +17.0 at Appalachian State 30 10/20/2018 Louisiana-Lafayette 17 +25.5 at Appalachian State 27 12/ 2/2017 Louisiana-Lafayette 14 +14.5 at Appalachian State 63 10/12/2016 Appalachian State 24 -10.0 at Louisiana-Lafayette 0 11/28/2015 Louisiana-Lafayette 7 +23.5 at Appalachian State 28 11/22/2014 Appalachian State 35 + 9.5 at Louisiana-Lafayette 16 average outcome: Appalachian State 32.2 Louisiana-Lafayette 15.8 margin = -16.44 time-weighted average outcome: Appalachian State 31.6 Louisiana-Lafayette 17.3 margin = -14.23 average result when the home team is Louisiana-Lafayette Appalachian State 25.3 Louisiana-Lafayette 7.7 margin = -17.67 average result when the home team is Appalachian State Louisiana-Lafayette 19.8 Appalachian State 35.7 margin = 15.83 22.22 % of games went Over 0.00 % went Over at Louisiana-Lafayette average total points per game = 48.00 time-weighted average total = 48.89 the home team covered 22.22 % of the time the road team covered 77.78 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -5.50 the favorite covered 33.33 % of the time the underdog covered 66.67 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -2.39 the favorite won SU 66.67 % of the time Appalachian State covered 55.56 % of the time Louisiana-Lafayette covered 44.44 % of the time Louisiana-Lafayette covered 0.00 % of the time at home Louisiana-Lafayette covered 0.00 % of the time as home underdogs
App State has held the upper hand in this series as you can see above. Though La Lafayette started to close the gap a couple of years ago and finally won outright last year. That sets up the first revenge game of this series for App State.
A win here for App State sets up a huge conference divisional clash against 1st place and undefeated Coastal Carolina next week.
Our model has this game tight. An App State win by 5 to 8 which leaves no room for error in terms of covering this small spot.
We lean towards the underdog here, at home with a chance to shine on ESPN2. Just a lean though with a very capable Louisiana team.
We also lean towards the under, which would be the stronger of our two leans.