App State at Louisiana Lafayette College Football Pick – 10/12/21

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app state at louisiana lafayette
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Louisiana Lafayette will host App State on Tuesday night to get college football rolling this week. App State is a -3.5 point road favorite in the game with a current posted total of 55. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

This game features two of the top teams in the Sun Belt conference. App State sits at 4-1 overall and 1-0 in conference play. Louisiana is also 4-1 overall, but two of those wins were in conference play, where they sit at 2-0 and in 1st place in the Sun Belt B division.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/ 4/2020  Louisiana-Lafayette      24  + 2.5  at Appalachian State        21
12/ 7/2019  Louisiana-Lafayette      38  + 6.5  at Appalachian State        45
10/ 9/2019  Appalachian State        17  + 2.5  at Louisiana-Lafayette       7
12/ 1/2018  Louisiana-Lafayette      19  +17.0  at Appalachian State        30
10/20/2018  Louisiana-Lafayette      17  +25.5  at Appalachian State        27
12/ 2/2017  Louisiana-Lafayette      14  +14.5  at Appalachian State        63
10/12/2016  Appalachian State        24  -10.0  at Louisiana-Lafayette       0
11/28/2015  Louisiana-Lafayette       7  +23.5  at Appalachian State        28
11/22/2014  Appalachian State        35  + 9.5  at Louisiana-Lafayette      16
  
   average outcome:
     Appalachian State       32.2  Louisiana-Lafayette     15.8
     margin = -16.44
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Appalachian State       31.6  Louisiana-Lafayette     17.3
     margin = -14.23
  
   average result when the home team is Louisiana-Lafayette    
     Appalachian State       25.3  Louisiana-Lafayette      7.7
     margin = -17.67
  
   average result when the home team is Appalachian State      
     Louisiana-Lafayette     19.8  Appalachian State       35.7
     margin =  15.83
  
    22.22 % of games went Over
     0.00 % went Over at Louisiana-Lafayette    
  
   average total points per game =  48.00
   time-weighted average total   =  48.89
  
   the home team covered  22.22 % of the time
   the road team covered  77.78 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.50
  
   the favorite  covered  33.33 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  66.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.39
  
   the favorite won SU    66.67 % of the time
  
   Appalachian State       covered  55.56 % of the time
   Louisiana-Lafayette     covered  44.44 % of the time
  
   Louisiana-Lafayette     covered   0.00 % of the time at home
   Louisiana-Lafayette     covered   0.00 % of the time as home underdogs

App State has held the upper hand in this series as you can see above. Though La Lafayette started to close the gap a couple of years ago and finally won outright last year. That sets up the first revenge game of this series for App State.

A win here for App State sets up a huge conference divisional clash against 1st place and undefeated Coastal Carolina next week.

Our model has this game tight. An App State win by 5 to 8 which leaves no room for error in terms of covering this small spot.

We lean towards the underdog here, at home with a chance to shine on ESPN2. Just a lean though with a very capable Louisiana team.

We also lean towards the under, which would be the stronger of our two leans.

Louisiana Lafayette +5
UNDER 55