Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens – Week 5 NFL Pick – 10/11/21

colts at ravens pick
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The Colts are coming off their first win of the season and hit the road Monday night to face a Ravens’ team that has won three straight.

Oddsmakers have the Ravens as a 7-point home favorite in this AFC game with a total of 46. While the total has gone down two points since opening the spread has not changed as of Thursday.

After Week 4 the Colts are 1-3 and 2-2 ATS and the Ravens are 3-1 and 2-2 ATS.

Last season in Indy the Ravens beat the Colts 24-10.

The Colts got into the win column in their last game with a 27-17 win over the Dolphins, who only have one win. Carson Wentz had his best game as a Colt in the last game but the team still only ranks 25th in the league in passing yards per game and tied for 21st in ppg.

The Ravens won their third in a row in their last game with a 23-7 road win over the former undefeated Denver Broncos. After giving up 69 points in their first two games Baltimore has only given up 24 points in their last two games.

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games facing the Ravens but did not cover in the home loss facing them last season.

Wentz Quiets the Critics

Wentz had lost seven straight games as a starter before the last game where against the Dolphins he passed for 228 yards with two TD and no INT. He played well in that game and only has one INT on the season but also only has five TD and only ranks 22nd in the NFL in QBR.

Michael Pittman Jr. leads the team with 279 receiving yards and three other players have at least 119 receiving yards. Jonathan Taylor (274 yards 1 TD) had his best game of the season in the win over Miami rushing for 103 yards with a TD averaging 6.4 yards per carry.

The Baltimore defense has played well in the last two games and they are very strong against the run, which will put a lot of pressure on Wentz. While the Ravens rank a legit 7thin the NFL against the run they only rank 24th against the pass.

Defense Takes Over

In the Ravens win over the Broncos last week the defense only gave up seven points and 254 yards.

Lamar Jackson (1,077 4 TD 3 INT) passed for 316 yards with a TD and no INT in the win over Denver and rushed for 28 yards. He had been picked off three times in his previous two games.

Jackson also leads the Ravens with 279 yards and the RB corps has been decimated by injury. Rookie Ty’Son Williams (164 yards 1 TD) did not play in the last game but will go in this one and Latavius Murray (151 yards 3 TD) is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry.

Baltimore has three players with at least 253 receiving yards led by Marquise Brown, who has 326 receiving yards and had 91 in the win over the Broncos.

Indy ranks in the middle of the pack in rushing defense and ninth in passing defense. They have eight sacks on the season and getting to Jackson is key in this Monday night game.

The Prediction 

The Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog while the Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and those trends will continue.

Wentz played well in the last game but I do not have much faith in him. The team will look to lean on Taylor but the Ravens defense will keep him from having a big game on the ground. I look for Jackson to play well in the air and on the ground and add that to a third straight solid defensive effort you get a Baltimore win where they will also cover.

PICK:  Ravens -7

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