Georgia Southern visits South Alabama on Thursday night. South Alabama is a -3.5 point favorite with a total of 50. The game can be seen on ESPNU at 7:30 PM EST.
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While we have no official pick on this game, here is the way our model sees it.
Georgia Southern 50.0 20 South Alabama -3.5 23 Georgia Southern 50.0 36 South Alabama -3.5 24
Note there are two scores. The first score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from just the last 4 games. So the 2nd score eliminates the first game for South Alabama and the first two games for Georgia Southern.
This feature of running the games through the model with different time frame parameters is extremely useful as the season progresses. Not so much early in the year. You can see above how a couple of games worth of stats can sway the predicted outcome.
There will be no pick below, but here are the head to head stats.
Head to Head Stats
head-to-head history (lined games):
10/29/2020 South Alabama 17 + 3.5 at Georgia Southern 24
10/ 3/2019 Georgia Southern 20 -10.0 at South Alabama 17
10/ 6/2018 South Alabama 13 +12.0 at Georgia Southern 48
11/18/2017 South Alabama 0 - 6.0 at Georgia Southern 52
9/10/2016 Georgia Southern 24 -13.5 at South Alabama 9
11/28/2015 South Alabama 17 +21.5 at Georgia Southern 55
9/20/2014 Georgia Southern 28 - 3.0 at South Alabama 6
average outcome:
Georgia Southern 35.9 South Alabama 11.3
margin = -24.57
time-weighted average outcome:
Georgia Southern 34.5 South Alabama 12.2
margin = -22.31
average result when the home team is South Alabama
Georgia Southern 24.0 South Alabama 10.7
margin = -13.33
average result when the home team is Georgia Southern
South Alabama 11.8 Georgia Southern 44.8
margin = 33.00
42.86 % of games went Over
0.00 % went Over at South Alabama
average total points per game = 47.14
time-weighted average total = 46.64
the home team covered 71.43 % of the time
the road team covered 28.57 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 12.50
the favorite covered 71.43 % of the time
the underdog covered 28.57 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.21
the favorite won SU 85.71 % of the time
Georgia Southern covered 85.71 % of the time
South Alabama covered 14.29 % of the time
South Alabama covered 33.33 % of the time at home