Georgia Southern at South Alabama – Free College Football Pick – 10/14/21

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georgia southern at south alabama pick
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Georgia Southern visits South Alabama on Thursday night. South Alabama is a -3.5 point favorite with a total of 50. The game can be seen on ESPNU at 7:30 PM EST.

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While we have no official pick on this game, here is the way our model sees it.

Georgia Southern          50.0          20           
South Alabama             -3.5          23
  
Georgia Southern          50.0          36           
South Alabama             -3.5          24

Note there are two scores. The first score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from just the last 4 games. So the 2nd score eliminates the first game for South Alabama and the first two games for Georgia Southern.

This feature of running the games through the model with different time frame parameters is extremely useful as the season progresses. Not so much early in the year. You can see above how a couple of games worth of stats can sway the predicted outcome.

There will be no pick below, but here are the head to head stats.

Head to Head Stats

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/29/2020  South Alabama            17  + 3.5  at Georgia Southern         24
10/ 3/2019  Georgia Southern         20  -10.0  at South Alabama            17
10/ 6/2018  South Alabama            13  +12.0  at Georgia Southern         48
11/18/2017  South Alabama             0  - 6.0  at Georgia Southern         52
 9/10/2016  Georgia Southern         24  -13.5  at South Alabama             9
11/28/2015  South Alabama            17  +21.5  at Georgia Southern         55
 9/20/2014  Georgia Southern         28  - 3.0  at South Alabama             6
  
   average outcome:
     Georgia Southern        35.9  South Alabama           11.3
     margin = -24.57
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Georgia Southern        34.5  South Alabama           12.2
     margin = -22.31
  
   average result when the home team is South Alabama          
     Georgia Southern        24.0  South Alabama           10.7
     margin = -13.33
  
   average result when the home team is Georgia Southern       
     South Alabama           11.8  Georgia Southern        44.8
     margin =  33.00
  
    42.86 % of games went Over
     0.00 % went Over at South Alabama          
  
   average total points per game =  47.14
   time-weighted average total   =  46.64
  
   the home team covered  71.43 % of the time
   the road team covered  28.57 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = 12.50
  
   the favorite  covered  71.43 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  28.57 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.21
  
   the favorite won SU    85.71 % of the time
  
   Georgia Southern        covered  85.71 % of the time
   South Alabama           covered  14.29 % of the time
  
   South Alabama           covered  33.33 % of the time at home