BYU will host Boise State on Saturday afternoon in a game that kicks off 3:30 PM EST. BYU opened as a -3.5 point home favorite and has been bet up to as high as -6 in some spots. The current total on the game is 56.5 with a couple of 57’s.
BYU comes in undefeated at 5-0. This after as 2020 season in which they were 11-1. If you go back to October of 2019, BYU is on a 21-3 straight up run. I guess you could say coach Kalani Sitake and his BYU Cougars have figured out how to win some football games!
Boise State comes in to this game at 2-3. They have played two conference games and stand at 1-1 in MWC play, so still very much in the thick of things in conference.
Head to Head History
11/ 6/2020 B.Y.U. 51 - 1.5 at Boise State 17
10/19/2019 Boise State 25 - 7.0 at B.Y.U. 28
11/ 3/2018 B.Y.U. 16 +13.0 at Boise State 21
10/ 6/2017 Boise State 24 - 7.0 at B.Y.U. 7
10/20/2016 B.Y.U. 27 + 7.0 at Boise State 28
9/12/2015 Boise State 24 - 2.5 at B.Y.U. 35
10/24/2014 B.Y.U. 30 + 6.5 at Boise State 55
10/25/2013 Boise State 20 + 7.0 at B.Y.U. 37
9/20/2012 B.Y.U. 6 + 6.5 at Boise State 7
9/24/2004 B.Y.U. 27 +18.0 at Boise State 28
10/30/2003 Boise State 50 - 5.5 at B.Y.U. 12
average outcome:
Boise State 27.2 B.Y.U. 25.1
margin = -2.09
time-weighted average outcome:
Boise State 24.3 B.Y.U. 28.4
margin = 4.12
average result when the home team is B.Y.U.
Boise State 28.6 B.Y.U. 23.8
margin = -4.80
average result when the home team is Boise State
B.Y.U. 26.2 Boise State 26.0
margin = -0.17
45.45 % of games went Over
60.00 % went Over at B.Y.U.
average total points per game = 52.27
time-weighted average total = 52.78
the home team covered 36.36 % of the time
the road team covered 63.64 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -5.41
the favorite covered 45.45 % of the time
the underdog covered 54.55 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.95
the favorite won SU 81.82 % of the time
Boise State covered 27.27 % of the time
B.Y.U. covered 72.73 % of the time
B.Y.U. covered 60.00 % of the time at home
B.Y.U. covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites
The opening line of BYU -3.5 showed no respect to a BYU team that has done nothing but win football games going back to mid October of 2019. But early bettors took care of that by pounding the Cougars side, moving the number to -6.
It’s a surprising lack of respect when you consider that their opponent, Boise State, really hasn’t looked all that great thus far in 2021.
The Broncos can’t run the ball. They can throw it, but there’s no balance to their offense. Going on the road and facing a balanced attack like BYU’s, a team that knows how to win, is a challenge to say the least.
Our Pick
But as the line continues to rise, we lose interest in the BYU side. You can see by the history between these two that there’s no shortage of good games. You’ll also find many instances of these two taking turns winning.
This is significant because this is a huge revenge game for Boise State. Their 51-17 loss to BYU last year was their worst loss in 16 years and their worst home loss in 25 years! Revenge is big in college ball when it’s simply to atone for a close loss. Never mind when that loss is the worst one in decades.
Our model also has BYU winning, but by just 4. So despite Boise States shortcoming, you can be sure emotion will kick in and this team will be flying high. With any luck we’ll be able to grab +7 or more, but we’ll take the +6 for now. We’ll also take a taste of the 1st quarter and 1st half.