Boise State at BYU – Free College Football Pick ATS – 10/9/21

boise state at byu cfb pick
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BYU will host Boise State on Saturday afternoon in a game that kicks off 3:30 PM EST. BYU opened as a -3.5 point home favorite and has been bet up to as high as -6 in some spots. The current total on the game is 56.5 with a couple of 57’s.

BYU comes in undefeated at 5-0. This after as 2020 season in which they were 11-1. If you go back to October of 2019, BYU is on a 21-3 straight up run. I guess you could say coach Kalani Sitake and his BYU Cougars have figured out how to win some football games!

Boise State comes in to this game at 2-3. They have played two conference games and stand at 1-1 in MWC play, so still very much in the thick of things in conference.

Head to Head History

11/ 6/2020  B.Y.U.                   51  - 1.5  at Boise State              17
10/19/2019  Boise State              25  - 7.0  at B.Y.U.                   28
11/ 3/2018  B.Y.U.                   16  +13.0  at Boise State              21
10/ 6/2017  Boise State              24  - 7.0  at B.Y.U.                    7
10/20/2016  B.Y.U.                   27  + 7.0  at Boise State              28
 9/12/2015  Boise State              24  - 2.5  at B.Y.U.                   35
10/24/2014  B.Y.U.                   30  + 6.5  at Boise State              55
10/25/2013  Boise State              20  + 7.0  at B.Y.U.                   37
 9/20/2012  B.Y.U.                    6  + 6.5  at Boise State               7
 9/24/2004  B.Y.U.                   27  +18.0  at Boise State              28
10/30/2003  Boise State              50  - 5.5  at B.Y.U.                   12
   average outcome:
     Boise State             27.2  B.Y.U.                  25.1
     margin =  -2.09
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Boise State             24.3  B.Y.U.                  28.4
     margin =   4.12
   average result when the home team is B.Y.U.                 
     Boise State             28.6  B.Y.U.                  23.8
     margin =  -4.80
   average result when the home team is Boise State            
     B.Y.U.                  26.2  Boise State             26.0
     margin =  -0.17
    45.45 % of games went Over
    60.00 % went Over at B.Y.U.                 
   average total points per game =  52.27
   time-weighted average total   =  52.78
   the home team covered  36.36 % of the time
   the road team covered  63.64 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.41
   the favorite  covered  45.45 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  54.55 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.95
   the favorite won SU    81.82 % of the time
   Boise State             covered  27.27 % of the time
   B.Y.U.                  covered  72.73 % of the time
   B.Y.U.                  covered  60.00 % of the time at home
   B.Y.U.                  covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites

The opening line of BYU -3.5 showed no respect to a BYU team that has done nothing but win football games going back to mid October of 2019. But early bettors took care of that by pounding the Cougars side, moving the number to -6.

It’s a surprising lack of respect when you consider that their opponent, Boise State, really hasn’t looked all that great thus far in 2021.

The Broncos can’t run the ball. They can throw it, but there’s no balance to their offense. Going on the road and facing a balanced attack like BYU’s, a team that knows how to win, is a challenge to say the least.

Our Pick 

But as the line continues to rise, we lose interest in the BYU side. You can see by the history between these two that there’s no shortage of good games. You’ll also find many instances of these two taking turns winning.

This is significant because this is a huge revenge game for Boise State. Their 51-17 loss to BYU last year was their worst loss in 16 years and their worst home loss in 25 years! Revenge is big in college ball when it’s simply to atone for a close loss. Never mind when that loss is the worst one in decades.

Our model also has BYU winning, but by just 4. So despite Boise States shortcoming, you can be sure emotion will kick in and this team will be flying high. With any luck we’ll be able to grab +7 or more, but we’ll take the +6 for now. We’ll also take a taste of the 1st quarter and 1st half.

Boise State +1/2 +104  1st quarter
Boise State +3 1st half
Boise State +6 for the game

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