Syracuse will host Wake Forest on Saturday October 9th with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 PM EST. Wake Forest opened as a -7 point road favorite which has since moved to -6. The total is 57.
Wake Forest is undefeated at 5-0 and is 3-0 in conference play and in 1st place in the ACC Atlantic. It hasn’t been the toughest schedule to date, but they did beat Louisville by 3 last week and knocked off Virginia two weeks ago.
Syracuse comes into this ACC matchup at 3-2. They have played just one conference game, a loss to Florida State last week. That places them last in the ACC Coastal division but with a long way to go. Certainly a win here would shake up the standings.
Head to Head History
10/31/2020 Wake Forest 38 -12.0 at Syracuse 14
11/30/2019 Wake Forest 30 - 3.5 at Syracuse 39
11/ 3/2018 Syracuse 41 - 6.0 at Wake Forest 24
11/11/2017 Wake Forest 64 + 1.0 at Syracuse 43
10/ 8/2016 Syracuse 9 + 4.5 at Wake Forest 28
9/12/2015 Wake Forest 17 + 4.0 at Syracuse 30
10/18/2014 Syracuse 30 - 5.0 at Wake Forest 7
11/ 2/2013 Wake Forest 0 + 4.5 at Syracuse 13
9/ 1/2011 Wake Forest 29 + 6.5 at Syracuse 36
9/ 2/2006 Syracuse 10 +14.0 at Wake Forest 20
average outcome:
Wake Forest 25.7 Syracuse 26.5
margin = 0.80
time-weighted average outcome:
Wake Forest 30.9 Syracuse 28.7
margin = -2.25
average result when the home team is Syracuse
Wake Forest 29.7 Syracuse 29.2
margin = -0.50
average result when the home team is Wake Forest
Syracuse 22.5 Wake Forest 19.8
margin = -2.75
40.00 % of games went Over
66.67 % went Over at Syracuse
average total points per game = 52.20
time-weighted average total = 59.65
the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.20
the favorite covered 70.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 30.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.50
the favorite won SU 80.00 % of the time
Wake Forest covered 30.00 % of the time
Syracuse covered 70.00 % of the time
Syracuse covered 66.67 % of the time at home
Syracuse covered 50.00 % of the time as home underdogs
Certainly Wake Forest looks to be a solid team in 2021. Just how solid remains to be seen. We really have to toss out a few of their games due to weak opposition. But they did beat Florida State handily while Syracuse lost to them.
One thing that stands out here and has a lot to do with the early line move is the ability of Syracuse to run the ball. They are averaging 5 yards per rush attempt while giving up just 3.8. Wake Forest is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt while giving up 4.
Sharp players look for that discrepancy in rushing yards, particularly when the team with the better numbers is the underdog. When that underdog is at home, even better.
Our model also likes Syracuse, straight up actually, when using data from every game played so far this year.
We’ll obviously learn much more about each of these teams this week and going forward as the schedule toughens up for both. In this spot, we’ll take our chances with the home dog in a game they should be in all the way.