Wake Forest at Syracuse – College Football – 10/9/21

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Syracuse will host Wake Forest on Saturday October 9th with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 PM EST. Wake Forest opened as a -7 point road favorite which has since moved to -6. The total is 57.

Wake Forest is undefeated at 5-0 and is 3-0 in conference play and in 1st place in the ACC Atlantic. It hasn’t been the toughest schedule to date, but they did beat Louisville by 3 last week and knocked off Virginia two weeks ago.

Syracuse comes into this ACC matchup at 3-2. They have played just one conference game, a loss to Florida State last week. That places them last in the ACC Coastal division but with a long way to go. Certainly a win here would shake up the standings.

Head to Head History

10/31/2020  Wake Forest              38  -12.0  at Syracuse                 14
11/30/2019  Wake Forest              30  - 3.5  at Syracuse                 39
11/ 3/2018  Syracuse                 41  - 6.0  at Wake Forest              24
11/11/2017  Wake Forest              64  + 1.0  at Syracuse                 43
10/ 8/2016  Syracuse                  9  + 4.5  at Wake Forest              28
 9/12/2015  Wake Forest              17  + 4.0  at Syracuse                 30
10/18/2014  Syracuse                 30  - 5.0  at Wake Forest               7
11/ 2/2013  Wake Forest               0  + 4.5  at Syracuse                 13
 9/ 1/2011  Wake Forest              29  + 6.5  at Syracuse                 36
 9/ 2/2006  Syracuse                 10  +14.0  at Wake Forest              20
  
   average outcome:
     Wake Forest             25.7  Syracuse                26.5
     margin =   0.80
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Wake Forest             30.9  Syracuse                28.7
     margin =  -2.25
  
   average result when the home team is Syracuse               
     Wake Forest             29.7  Syracuse                29.2
     margin =  -0.50
  
   average result when the home team is Wake Forest            
     Syracuse                22.5  Wake Forest             19.8
     margin =  -2.75
  
    40.00 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Syracuse               
  
   average total points per game =  52.20
   time-weighted average total   =  59.65
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.20
  
   the favorite  covered  70.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  30.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.50
  
   the favorite won SU    80.00 % of the time
  
   Wake Forest             covered  30.00 % of the time
   Syracuse                covered  70.00 % of the time
  
   Syracuse                covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Syracuse                covered  50.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Certainly Wake Forest looks to be a solid team in 2021. Just how solid remains to be seen. We really have to toss out a few of their games due to weak opposition.  But they did beat Florida State handily while Syracuse lost to them.

One thing that stands out here and has a lot to do with the early line move is the ability of Syracuse to run the ball. They are averaging 5 yards per rush attempt while giving up just 3.8. Wake Forest is averaging 4.1 yards per attempt while giving up 4.

Sharp players look for that discrepancy in rushing yards, particularly when the team with the better numbers is the underdog. When that underdog is at home, even better.

Our model also likes Syracuse, straight up actually, when using data from every game played so far this year.

We’ll obviously learn much more about each of these teams this week and going forward as the schedule toughens up for both. In this spot, we’ll take our chances with the home dog in a game they should be in all the way.

Syracuse +6