Boston College at Syracuse Free College Football Pick – 10/30/21

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bc at syracuse cfb pick ats
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Syracuse will host Boston College in ACC action on Saturday in a game that kicks off at 3:30 PM EST. Syracuse opened as a -4.5 point home favorite and has been bet up to as high as -6.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total is 51.

Boston College received a ton of sharp action last week against Louisville. Even after the game moved off of the +6, they kept betting BC. But the Eagles let their backers down for the 2nd week in a row, losing 28-14. They sit at 4-3 overall but 0-3 in conference play.

Syracuse outscored Virginia Tech in the 4th quarter last week in route to a 41-36 win over the Hokies. That moved them to 4-4 overall and 1-3 in conference play.

Head to Head History

11/ 7/2020  Boston College           16  -14.0  at Syracuse                 13
11/ 2/2019  Boston College           58  + 3.0  at Syracuse                 27
11/24/2018  Syracuse                 42  + 7.0  at Boston College           21
11/25/2017  Boston College           42  - 3.5  at Syracuse                 14
10/22/2016  Syracuse                 28  + 4.5  at Boston College           20
11/28/2015  Boston College           17  - 3.0  at Syracuse                 20
11/29/2014  Syracuse                  7  +11.0  at Boston College           28
11/30/2013  Boston College           31  - 2.0  at Syracuse                 34
11/27/2010  Boston College           16  + 3.5  at Syracuse                  7
11/27/2004  Syracuse                 43  +10.5  at Boston College           17
10/18/2003  Boston College           14  - 3.0  at Syracuse                 39
11/16/2002  Syracuse                 20  + 9.0  at Boston College           41
11/24/2001  Boston College           28  + 3.5  at Syracuse                 39
10/14/2000  Syracuse                 13  - 1.0  at Boston College           20
10/30/1999  Boston College           24  +19.0  at Syracuse                 23
10/17/1998  Syracuse                 42  -13.5  at Boston College           25
11/ 8/1997  Boston College           13  +29.0  at Syracuse                 20
10/26/1996  Syracuse                 45  -11.0  at Boston College           17
11/18/1995  Boston College           29  + 8.0  at Syracuse                 58
11/12/1994  Syracuse                  0  + 6.0  at Boston College           31
10/ 2/1993  Boston College           33  + 7.0  at Syracuse                 29
11/14/1992  Syracuse                 27  - 3.5  at Boston College           10
11/16/1991  Boston College           16  + 9.0  at Syracuse                 38
11/ 3/1990  Syracuse                 35  - 9.0  at Boston College            6
  
   average outcome:
     Boston College          23.9  Syracuse                27.6
     margin =   3.75
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Boston College          29.7  Syracuse                23.4
     margin =  -6.30
  
   average result when the home team is Syracuse               
     Boston College          25.9  Syracuse                27.8
     margin =   1.85
  
   average result when the home team is Boston College         
     Syracuse                27.5  Boston College          21.5
     margin =  -6.00
  
    42.86 % of games went Over
    37.50 % went Over at Syracuse               
    (since        2000 )
  
   average total points per game =  51.50
   time-weighted average total   =  53.13
  
   the home team covered  45.83 % of the time
   the road team covered  54.17 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -4.52
  
   the favorite  covered  45.83 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  54.17 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.81
  
   the favorite won SU    54.17 % of the time
  
   Boston College          covered  41.67 % of the time
   Syracuse                covered  58.33 % of the time
  
   Syracuse                covered  53.85 % of the time at home
   Syracuse                covered  37.50 % of the time as home favorites

A quick look at the Boston College schedule to date shows their early season stats were a bit misleading as they beat up on some weak opposition. Beating Colgate, UMASS and Temple can make anyone look good.

But look what happened when they ran into stiffer competition. Sure, they gave a Clemson team with offensive problems a battle, but recent losses to NC State and Louisville tell a different story.

Our model factors in schedule strength and the impact of those early season games and has Syracuse winning this game by 10+ points. We agree.

Syracuse -5.5