Syracuse will host Boston College in ACC action on Saturday in a game that kicks off at 3:30 PM EST. Syracuse opened as a -4.5 point home favorite and has been bet up to as high as -6.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total is 51.
Boston College received a ton of sharp action last week against Louisville. Even after the game moved off of the +6, they kept betting BC. But the Eagles let their backers down for the 2nd week in a row, losing 28-14. They sit at 4-3 overall but 0-3 in conference play.
Syracuse outscored Virginia Tech in the 4th quarter last week in route to a 41-36 win over the Hokies. That moved them to 4-4 overall and 1-3 in conference play.
Head to Head History
11/ 7/2020 Boston College 16 -14.0 at Syracuse 13
11/ 2/2019 Boston College 58 + 3.0 at Syracuse 27
11/24/2018 Syracuse 42 + 7.0 at Boston College 21
11/25/2017 Boston College 42 - 3.5 at Syracuse 14
10/22/2016 Syracuse 28 + 4.5 at Boston College 20
11/28/2015 Boston College 17 - 3.0 at Syracuse 20
11/29/2014 Syracuse 7 +11.0 at Boston College 28
11/30/2013 Boston College 31 - 2.0 at Syracuse 34
11/27/2010 Boston College 16 + 3.5 at Syracuse 7
11/27/2004 Syracuse 43 +10.5 at Boston College 17
10/18/2003 Boston College 14 - 3.0 at Syracuse 39
11/16/2002 Syracuse 20 + 9.0 at Boston College 41
11/24/2001 Boston College 28 + 3.5 at Syracuse 39
10/14/2000 Syracuse 13 - 1.0 at Boston College 20
10/30/1999 Boston College 24 +19.0 at Syracuse 23
10/17/1998 Syracuse 42 -13.5 at Boston College 25
11/ 8/1997 Boston College 13 +29.0 at Syracuse 20
10/26/1996 Syracuse 45 -11.0 at Boston College 17
11/18/1995 Boston College 29 + 8.0 at Syracuse 58
11/12/1994 Syracuse 0 + 6.0 at Boston College 31
10/ 2/1993 Boston College 33 + 7.0 at Syracuse 29
11/14/1992 Syracuse 27 - 3.5 at Boston College 10
11/16/1991 Boston College 16 + 9.0 at Syracuse 38
11/ 3/1990 Syracuse 35 - 9.0 at Boston College 6
average outcome:
Boston College 23.9 Syracuse 27.6
margin = 3.75
time-weighted average outcome:
Boston College 29.7 Syracuse 23.4
margin = -6.30
average result when the home team is Syracuse
Boston College 25.9 Syracuse 27.8
margin = 1.85
average result when the home team is Boston College
Syracuse 27.5 Boston College 21.5
margin = -6.00
42.86 % of games went Over
37.50 % went Over at Syracuse
(since 2000 )
average total points per game = 51.50
time-weighted average total = 53.13
the home team covered 45.83 % of the time
the road team covered 54.17 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -4.52
the favorite covered 45.83 % of the time
the underdog covered 54.17 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.81
the favorite won SU 54.17 % of the time
Boston College covered 41.67 % of the time
Syracuse covered 58.33 % of the time
Syracuse covered 53.85 % of the time at home
Syracuse covered 37.50 % of the time as home favorites
A quick look at the Boston College schedule to date shows their early season stats were a bit misleading as they beat up on some weak opposition. Beating Colgate, UMASS and Temple can make anyone look good.
But look what happened when they ran into stiffer competition. Sure, they gave a Clemson team with offensive problems a battle, but recent losses to NC State and Louisville tell a different story.
Our model factors in schedule strength and the impact of those early season games and has Syracuse winning this game by 10+ points. We agree.