The battle of Michigan takes place Saturday at 12 Noon Est. as Michigan State hosts Michigan in a Big 10 matchup featuring two undefeated teams. The Wolverines are a 4.5 point road favorite with a total of 50.5.
Head to Head History Michigan – Michigan State
10/31/2020 Michigan State 27 +24.5 at Michigan 24
11/16/2019 Michigan State 10 +13.5 at Michigan 44
10/20/2018 Michigan 21 - 7.0 at Michigan State 7
10/ 7/2017 Michigan State 14 +10.0 at Michigan 10
10/29/2016 Michigan 32 -24.5 at Michigan State 23
10/17/2015 Michigan State 27 + 7.0 at Michigan 23
10/25/2014 Michigan 11 +17.0 at Michigan State 35
11/ 2/2013 Michigan 6 + 4.0 at Michigan State 29
10/20/2012 Michigan State 10 + 9.5 at Michigan 12
10/15/2011 Michigan 14 + 2.5 at Michigan State 28
10/ 9/2010 Michigan State 34 + 4.5 at Michigan 17
10/ 3/2009 Michigan 20 + 3.5 at Michigan State 26
10/25/2008 Michigan State 35 - 4.0 at Michigan 21
11/ 3/2007 Michigan 28 - 3.0 at Michigan State 24
10/ 7/2006 Michigan State 13 +15.5 at Michigan 31
10/ 1/2005 Michigan 34 + 4.5 at Michigan State 31
10/30/2004 Michigan State 37 +12.5 at Michigan 45
11/ 1/2003 Michigan 27 - 4.5 at Michigan State 20
11/ 2/2002 Michigan State 3 +14.5 at Michigan 49
11/ 3/2001 Michigan 24 - 6.5 at Michigan State 26
10/21/2000 Michigan State 0 +15.5 at Michigan 14
10/ 9/1999 Michigan 31 - 2.5 at Michigan State 34
9/26/1998 Michigan State 17 + 9.5 at Michigan 29
10/25/1997 Michigan 23 - 2.5 at Michigan State 7
11/ 2/1996 Michigan State 29 + 8.5 at Michigan 45
11/ 4/1995 Michigan 25 -10.5 at Michigan State 28
10/ 8/1994 Michigan State 20 +14.0 at Michigan 40
10/ 9/1993 Michigan 7 -11.5 at Michigan State 17
10/10/1992 Michigan State 10 +28.0 at Michigan 35
10/12/1991 Michigan 45 -26.0 at Michigan State 28
10/13/1990 Michigan State 28 +11.5 at Michigan 27
average outcome:
Michigan 26.3 Michigan State 21.8
margin = -4.42
time-weighted average outcome:
Michigan 24.3 Michigan State 19.1
margin = -5.20
average result when the home team is Michigan State
Michigan 23.2 Michigan State 24.2
margin = 1.00
average result when the home team is Michigan
Michigan State 19.6 Michigan 29.1
margin = 9.50
47.83 % of games went Over
41.67 % went Over at Michigan State
(since 1997 )
average total points per game = 48.10
time-weighted average total = 43.40
the home team covered 51.61 % of the time
the road team covered 48.39 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.27
the favorite covered 48.39 % of the time
the underdog covered 51.61 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.27
the favorite won SU 67.74 % of the time
Michigan covered 35.48 % of the time
Michigan State covered 64.52 % of the time
Michigan State covered 66.67 % of the time at home
Michigan State covered 60.00 % of the time as home underdogs
While Michigan hold the advantage historically in this series, the last 20 years it’s gone back and forth with the Wolverines winning 11 and the Spartans winning 10.
Here are the yards per point numbers for these teams
| Mich 11.4 | 19.9 |
| Mich St 13 | 21.7 |
Our Pick
Those are some great numbers for both teams. Defensively Michigan State ranks 3rd in the country and Michigan ranks 5th. Offensively the Wolverines rank 13th and the Spartans 26th.
Both of these teams are playing fundamentally sound football. They’ve beaten some common opponents with both beating Nebraska by 3 but with the Spartans handling Rutgers by a larger margin than Michigan.
We’re willing to take any points available in this one. Any time you can grab a handful of points in a game that the underdog has a very good chance of winning straight up, you have yourself a good long term good bet.