Free Pick – Michigan at Michigan State – College Football – 10/30/21

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michigan at michigan state cfb pick ats
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The battle of Michigan takes place Saturday at 12 Noon Est. as Michigan State hosts Michigan in a Big 10 matchup featuring two undefeated teams. The Wolverines are a 4.5 point road favorite with a total of 50.5.

Head to Head History Michigan – Michigan State

10/31/2020  Michigan State           27  +24.5  at Michigan                 24
11/16/2019  Michigan State           10  +13.5  at Michigan                 44
10/20/2018  Michigan                 21  - 7.0  at Michigan State            7
10/ 7/2017  Michigan State           14  +10.0  at Michigan                 10
10/29/2016  Michigan                 32  -24.5  at Michigan State           23
10/17/2015  Michigan State           27  + 7.0  at Michigan                 23
10/25/2014  Michigan                 11  +17.0  at Michigan State           35
11/ 2/2013  Michigan                  6  + 4.0  at Michigan State           29
10/20/2012  Michigan State           10  + 9.5  at Michigan                 12
10/15/2011  Michigan                 14  + 2.5  at Michigan State           28
10/ 9/2010  Michigan State           34  + 4.5  at Michigan                 17
10/ 3/2009  Michigan                 20  + 3.5  at Michigan State           26
10/25/2008  Michigan State           35  - 4.0  at Michigan                 21
11/ 3/2007  Michigan                 28  - 3.0  at Michigan State           24
10/ 7/2006  Michigan State           13  +15.5  at Michigan                 31
10/ 1/2005  Michigan                 34  + 4.5  at Michigan State           31
10/30/2004  Michigan State           37  +12.5  at Michigan                 45
11/ 1/2003  Michigan                 27  - 4.5  at Michigan State           20
11/ 2/2002  Michigan State            3  +14.5  at Michigan                 49
11/ 3/2001  Michigan                 24  - 6.5  at Michigan State           26
10/21/2000  Michigan State            0  +15.5  at Michigan                 14
10/ 9/1999  Michigan                 31  - 2.5  at Michigan State           34
 9/26/1998  Michigan State           17  + 9.5  at Michigan                 29
10/25/1997  Michigan                 23  - 2.5  at Michigan State            7
11/ 2/1996  Michigan State           29  + 8.5  at Michigan                 45
11/ 4/1995  Michigan                 25  -10.5  at Michigan State           28
10/ 8/1994  Michigan State           20  +14.0  at Michigan                 40
10/ 9/1993  Michigan                  7  -11.5  at Michigan State           17
10/10/1992  Michigan State           10  +28.0  at Michigan                 35
10/12/1991  Michigan                 45  -26.0  at Michigan State           28
10/13/1990  Michigan State           28  +11.5  at Michigan                 27
  
   average outcome:
     Michigan                26.3  Michigan State          21.8
     margin =  -4.42
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Michigan                24.3  Michigan State          19.1
     margin =  -5.20
  
   average result when the home team is Michigan State         
     Michigan                23.2  Michigan State          24.2
     margin =   1.00
  
   average result when the home team is Michigan               
     Michigan State          19.6  Michigan                29.1
     margin =   9.50
  
    47.83 % of games went Over
    41.67 % went Over at Michigan State         
    (since        1997 )
  
   average total points per game =  48.10
   time-weighted average total   =  43.40
  
   the home team covered  51.61 % of the time
   the road team covered  48.39 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.27
  
   the favorite  covered  48.39 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  51.61 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.27
  
   the favorite won SU    67.74 % of the time
  
   Michigan                covered  35.48 % of the time
   Michigan State          covered  64.52 % of the time
  
   Michigan State          covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Michigan State          covered  60.00 % of the time as home underdogs

While Michigan hold the advantage historically in this series, the last 20 years it’s gone back and forth with the Wolverines winning 11 and the Spartans winning 10.

Here are the yards per point numbers for these teams

Mich     11.4 19.9
Mich St 13 21.7

 

Our Pick

Those are some great numbers for both teams. Defensively Michigan State ranks 3rd in the country and Michigan ranks 5th. Offensively the Wolverines rank 13th and the Spartans 26th.

Both of these teams are playing fundamentally sound football. They’ve beaten some common opponents with both beating Nebraska by 3 but with the Spartans handling Rutgers by a larger margin than Michigan.

We’re willing to take any points available in this one. Any time you can grab a handful of points in a game that the underdog has a very good chance of winning straight up, you have yourself a good long term good bet.

Michigan State +4.5