West Virginia will host Iowa State in Big 12 College football action on Saturday at 2 PM EST. Iowa State is currently a -7 point favorite on the road with a total of 48.
Iowa State was a big play last week for many handicappers. Several high profile services released the Cyclones as their “Game of the Year”. Unfortunately for those services and their followers, Iowa State couldn’t deliver. They won the game but failed to cover the number, which Ironically, was the same as this game, -7.
The Cyclones come into this game at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in Big 12 play, still very much in the picture in terms of defending their conference title.
West Virginia sits at 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in conference play. The only team below the Mountaineers in the standings is Kansas.
Head to Head History – Iowa State – West Virginia
12/ 5/2020 West Virginia 6 + 6.5 at Iowa State 42
10/12/2019 Iowa State 38 -10.0 at West Virginia 14
10/13/2018 West Virginia 14 - 6.5 at Iowa State 30
11/ 4/2017 Iowa State 16 + 2.5 at West Virginia 20
11/26/2016 West Virginia 49 - 7.0 at Iowa State 19
11/28/2015 Iowa State 6 +14.0 at West Virginia 30
11/29/2014 West Virginia 37 -11.0 at Iowa State 24
11/30/2013 Iowa State 52 + 7.5 at West Virginia 44
11/23/2012 West Virginia 31 - 1.5 at Iowa State 24
average outcome:
Iowa State 27.9 West Virginia 27.2
margin = -0.67
time-weighted average outcome:
Iowa State 29.0 West Virginia 21.8
margin = -7.29
average result when the home team is West Virginia
Iowa State 28.0 West Virginia 27.0
margin = -1.00
average result when the home team is Iowa State
West Virginia 27.4 Iowa State 27.8
margin = 0.40
22.22 % of games went Over
25.00 % went Over at West Virginia
average total points per game = 55.11
time-weighted average total = 50.80
the home team covered 44.44 % of the time
the road team covered 55.56 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.39
the favorite covered 77.78 % of the time
the underdog covered 22.22 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 5.28
the favorite won SU 77.78 % of the time
Iowa State covered 44.44 % of the time
West Virginia covered 55.56 % of the time
West Virginia covered 50.00 % of the time at home
West Virginia covered 0.00 % of the time as home underdogs
One run of our model using full season data has Iowa State by 7. However, when we use only the most recent games, that margin increases and that’s the direction we’re going here as Iowa State heads into the stretch run.