Free Pick – Iowa State at West Virginia – College Football – 10/30/21

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iowa state at west virginia pick
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West Virginia will host Iowa State in Big 12 College football action on Saturday at 2 PM EST. Iowa State is currently a -7 point favorite on the road with a total of 48.

Iowa State was a big play last week for many handicappers. Several high profile services released the Cyclones as their “Game of the Year”. Unfortunately for those services and their followers, Iowa State couldn’t deliver. They won the game but failed to cover the number, which Ironically, was the same as this game, -7.

The Cyclones come into this game at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in Big 12 play, still very much in the picture in terms of defending their conference title.

West Virginia sits at 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in conference play. The only team below the Mountaineers in the standings is Kansas.

Head to Head History – Iowa State – West Virginia

12/ 5/2020  West Virginia             6  + 6.5  at Iowa State               42
10/12/2019  Iowa State               38  -10.0  at West Virginia            14
10/13/2018  West Virginia            14  - 6.5  at Iowa State               30
11/ 4/2017  Iowa State               16  + 2.5  at West Virginia            20
11/26/2016  West Virginia            49  - 7.0  at Iowa State               19
11/28/2015  Iowa State                6  +14.0  at West Virginia            30
11/29/2014  West Virginia            37  -11.0  at Iowa State               24
11/30/2013  Iowa State               52  + 7.5  at West Virginia            44
11/23/2012  West Virginia            31  - 1.5  at Iowa State               24
  
   average outcome:
     Iowa State              27.9  West Virginia           27.2
     margin =  -0.67
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Iowa State              29.0  West Virginia           21.8
     margin =  -7.29
  
   average result when the home team is West Virginia          
     Iowa State              28.0  West Virginia           27.0
     margin =  -1.00
  
   average result when the home team is Iowa State             
     West Virginia           27.4  Iowa State              27.8
     margin =   0.40
  
    22.22 % of games went Over
    25.00 % went Over at West Virginia          
  
   average total points per game =  55.11
   time-weighted average total   =  50.80
  
   the home team covered  44.44 % of the time
   the road team covered  55.56 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.39
  
   the favorite  covered  77.78 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  22.22 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  5.28
  
   the favorite won SU    77.78 % of the time
  
   Iowa State              covered  44.44 % of the time
   West Virginia           covered  55.56 % of the time
  
   West Virginia           covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   West Virginia           covered   0.00 % of the time as home underdogs

One run of our model using full season data has Iowa State by 7. However, when we use only the most recent games, that margin increases and that’s the direction we’re going here as Iowa State heads into the stretch run.

Iowa State – 7