Coastal Carolina at App State Free College Football Pick – 10/20/21

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app state at coastal carolina pick
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App State will host Coastal Carolina on Wednesday night with kickoff set for 7:30 PM EST. Coastal Carolina is a -3.5 point road favorite with a current posted total of 59.5.

App State is 4-2 overall and 1-1 in conference play. App State was expected to get by Louisiana Lafayette last week and come into this game undefeated. Instead, they were blown off the field 41-13 by Louisiana.

Coastal Carolina on the other hand has lived up to the hype. They are 6-0 overall and 2-0 in conference play. The schedule has been weak though, with their toughest test coming in a 3 point win over Buffalo. They have also been off for two weeks.

Head to Head History

11/21/2020  Appalachian State        23  + 5.0  at Coastal Carolina         34
 9/28/2019  Coastal Carolina         37  +15.0  at Appalachian State        56
11/ 3/2018  Appalachian State        23  -13.5  at Coastal Carolina          7
10/21/2017  Coastal Carolina         29  +23.5  at Appalachian State        37
 9/29/2012  Coastal Carolina         14  +12.0  at Appalachian State        55
11/25/2006  Coastal Carolina         28  +18.5  at Appalachian State        45
 9/17/2005  Coastal Carolina          3  + 9.0  at Appalachian State        30
  
   average outcome:
     Coastal Carolina        21.7  Appalachian State       38.4
     margin =  16.71
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Coastal Carolina        27.0  Appalachian State       35.3
     margin =   8.28
  
   average result when the home team is Appalachian State      
     Coastal Carolina        22.2  Appalachian State       44.6
     margin =  22.40
  
   average result when the home team is Coastal Carolina       
     Appalachian State       23.0  Coastal Carolina        20.5
     margin =  -2.50
  
    75.00 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at Appalachian State      
    (since        2017 )
  
   average total points per game =  60.14
   time-weighted average total   =  62.26
  
   the home team covered  57.14 % of the time
   the road team covered  42.86 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  5.36
  
   the favorite  covered  71.43 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  28.57 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  6.07
  
   the favorite won SU   100.00 % of the time
  
   Coastal Carolina        covered  42.86 % of the time
   Appalachian State       covered  57.14 % of the time
  
   Appalachian State       covered  60.00 % of the time at home

For a Wednesday night, this game actually has some juice. It’s obviously a huge game in terms of the Sun Belt standings but we’ll also learn a heck of a lot more about both of these teams.

We don’t think App State is as bad as they looked last week. Expect a huge effort from the Mountaineers after being embarrassed last Tuesday. Our model, when using full season data, actually has App State winning outright here.

We also think they’ll come out fired up and will catch Coastal still sleeping from their two week hiatus. That’s a long time to be off.

We’ll divide our wager into three parts…

App State +4 for the game

App State +2.5 1st half

App State + 1/2  1st quarter