App State will host Coastal Carolina on Wednesday night with kickoff set for 7:30 PM EST. Coastal Carolina is a -3.5 point road favorite with a current posted total of 59.5.
App State is 4-2 overall and 1-1 in conference play. App State was expected to get by Louisiana Lafayette last week and come into this game undefeated. Instead, they were blown off the field 41-13 by Louisiana.
Coastal Carolina on the other hand has lived up to the hype. They are 6-0 overall and 2-0 in conference play. The schedule has been weak though, with their toughest test coming in a 3 point win over Buffalo. They have also been off for two weeks.
Head to Head History
11/21/2020 Appalachian State 23 + 5.0 at Coastal Carolina 34 9/28/2019 Coastal Carolina 37 +15.0 at Appalachian State 56 11/ 3/2018 Appalachian State 23 -13.5 at Coastal Carolina 7 10/21/2017 Coastal Carolina 29 +23.5 at Appalachian State 37 9/29/2012 Coastal Carolina 14 +12.0 at Appalachian State 55 11/25/2006 Coastal Carolina 28 +18.5 at Appalachian State 45 9/17/2005 Coastal Carolina 3 + 9.0 at Appalachian State 30 average outcome: Coastal Carolina 21.7 Appalachian State 38.4 margin = 16.71 time-weighted average outcome: Coastal Carolina 27.0 Appalachian State 35.3 margin = 8.28 average result when the home team is Appalachian State Coastal Carolina 22.2 Appalachian State 44.6 margin = 22.40 average result when the home team is Coastal Carolina Appalachian State 23.0 Coastal Carolina 20.5 margin = -2.50 75.00 % of games went Over 100.00 % went Over at Appalachian State (since 2017 ) average total points per game = 60.14 time-weighted average total = 62.26 the home team covered 57.14 % of the time the road team covered 42.86 % of the time Ave ATS differential = 5.36 the favorite covered 71.43 % of the time the underdog covered 28.57 % of the time Ave ATS differential = 6.07 the favorite won SU 100.00 % of the time Coastal Carolina covered 42.86 % of the time Appalachian State covered 57.14 % of the time Appalachian State covered 60.00 % of the time at home
For a Wednesday night, this game actually has some juice. It’s obviously a huge game in terms of the Sun Belt standings but we’ll also learn a heck of a lot more about both of these teams.
We don’t think App State is as bad as they looked last week. Expect a huge effort from the Mountaineers after being embarrassed last Tuesday. Our model, when using full season data, actually has App State winning outright here.
We also think they’ll come out fired up and will catch Coastal still sleeping from their two week hiatus. That’s a long time to be off.
We’ll divide our wager into three parts…