Tulane at SMU Free College Football Pick ATS – 10/21/21

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smu at tulane free cfb pick ats
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SMU will host Tulane on Thursday night at 7:30 EST. SMU is currently favored by 14 points with a posted total of 71. The game can be seen on ESPN.

SMU comes into this game undefeated at 6-0. One more win and they’ll tie last seasons win total. SMU is 2-0 in conference play and a win here sets up a showdown with first place Houston next week.

Tulane comes in reeling. They are 1-5 overall and 0-2 in conference play. This, after a 6-6 2020 season which saw them play in a minor Bowl game. They returned plenty of talent this year so hopes were high.

The Green Wave started the year by almost upsetting Oklahoma in a 40-35 loss. Their next game, they beat Missouri State in blowout fashion. Since that encouraging start Tulane has managed to lose every game.

Tulane has played well in portions of games but hasn’t played 4 good quarters since their first two games. For example, they only trailed 1st place Houston by 2 at the half before getting blown out in the 2nd.

Head to Head History

10/16/2020  S.M.U.                   37  - 6.5  at Tulane                   34
11/30/2019  Tulane                   20  + 3.5  at S.M.U.                   37
10/20/2018  S.M.U.                   27  + 7.5  at Tulane                   23
11/25/2017  Tulane                   38  + 8.0  at S.M.U.                   41
10/29/2016  S.M.U.                   35  + 2.5  at Tulane                   31
11/21/2015  Tulane                   21  + 3.0  at S.M.U.                   49
10/13/2012  S.M.U.                   26  -18.5  at Tulane                   27
11/ 5/2011  Tulane                   24  +26.0  at S.M.U.                   45
10/30/2010  S.M.U.                   31  - 7.5  at Tulane                   17
11/28/2009  Tulane                   21  +17.5  at S.M.U.                   26
 9/25/2008  S.M.U.                   27  +18.5  at Tulane                   34
10/20/2007  Tulane                   41  + 7.5  at S.M.U.                   34
 9/30/2006  S.M.U.                   33  - 2.5  at Tulane                   28
 9/24/2005  Tulane                   31  - 4.0  at S.M.U.                   10
 9/23/2000  Tulane                   29  + 1.5  at S.M.U.                   17
 9/11/1999  S.M.U.                   19  + 3.0  at Tulane                   53
 9/12/1998  Tulane                   31  - 8.5  at S.M.U.                   21
 9/ 5/1992  Tulane                   13  + 3.0  at S.M.U.                   12
10/ 5/1991  S.M.U.                   31  + 7.0  at Tulane                   17
 9/15/1990  S.M.U.                    7  + 7.0  at Tulane                   43
  
   average outcome:
     Tulane                  28.8  S.M.U.                  28.3
     margin =  -0.55
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Tulane                  28.1  S.M.U.                  36.1
     margin =   8.07
  
   average result when the home team is S.M.U.                 
     Tulane                  26.9  S.M.U.                  29.2
     margin =   2.30
  
   average result when the home team is Tulane                 
     S.M.U.                  27.3  Tulane                  30.7
     margin =   3.40
  
    64.29 % of games went Over
    57.14 % went Over at S.M.U.                 
    (since        2005 )
  
   average total points per game =  57.05
   time-weighted average total   =  64.20
  
   the home team covered  30.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  70.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.55
  
   the favorite  covered  40.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.10
  
   the favorite won SU    65.00 % of the time
  
   Tulane                  covered  60.00 % of the time
   S.M.U.                  covered  40.00 % of the time
  
   S.M.U.                  covered  20.00 % of the time at home
   S.M.U.                  covered  25.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here is the way our model sees the game. The first score is using season to date stats and the 2nd score is using just the last 4 games. As you can see, not much difference in the predicted outcome.

Tulane                    70.5          30           
S.M.U.                   -14.0          49
  
Tulane                    70.5          24           
S.M.U.                   -14.0          46

One of these weeks, Tulane is going to put together a game where they play 4 full quarters as they did against Oklahoma. If they do that here, they cover this number. But we aren’t about to try and guess when the Green Wave will decide to show up.

This is a pass for us. Enjoy the game!