SMU will host Tulane on Thursday night at 7:30 EST. SMU is currently favored by 14 points with a posted total of 71. The game can be seen on ESPN.
SMU comes into this game undefeated at 6-0. One more win and they’ll tie last seasons win total. SMU is 2-0 in conference play and a win here sets up a showdown with first place Houston next week.
Tulane comes in reeling. They are 1-5 overall and 0-2 in conference play. This, after a 6-6 2020 season which saw them play in a minor Bowl game. They returned plenty of talent this year so hopes were high.
The Green Wave started the year by almost upsetting Oklahoma in a 40-35 loss. Their next game, they beat Missouri State in blowout fashion. Since that encouraging start Tulane has managed to lose every game.
Tulane has played well in portions of games but hasn’t played 4 good quarters since their first two games. For example, they only trailed 1st place Houston by 2 at the half before getting blown out in the 2nd.
Head to Head History
10/16/2020 S.M.U. 37 - 6.5 at Tulane 34
11/30/2019 Tulane 20 + 3.5 at S.M.U. 37
10/20/2018 S.M.U. 27 + 7.5 at Tulane 23
11/25/2017 Tulane 38 + 8.0 at S.M.U. 41
10/29/2016 S.M.U. 35 + 2.5 at Tulane 31
11/21/2015 Tulane 21 + 3.0 at S.M.U. 49
10/13/2012 S.M.U. 26 -18.5 at Tulane 27
11/ 5/2011 Tulane 24 +26.0 at S.M.U. 45
10/30/2010 S.M.U. 31 - 7.5 at Tulane 17
11/28/2009 Tulane 21 +17.5 at S.M.U. 26
9/25/2008 S.M.U. 27 +18.5 at Tulane 34
10/20/2007 Tulane 41 + 7.5 at S.M.U. 34
9/30/2006 S.M.U. 33 - 2.5 at Tulane 28
9/24/2005 Tulane 31 - 4.0 at S.M.U. 10
9/23/2000 Tulane 29 + 1.5 at S.M.U. 17
9/11/1999 S.M.U. 19 + 3.0 at Tulane 53
9/12/1998 Tulane 31 - 8.5 at S.M.U. 21
9/ 5/1992 Tulane 13 + 3.0 at S.M.U. 12
10/ 5/1991 S.M.U. 31 + 7.0 at Tulane 17
9/15/1990 S.M.U. 7 + 7.0 at Tulane 43
average outcome:
Tulane 28.8 S.M.U. 28.3
margin = -0.55
time-weighted average outcome:
Tulane 28.1 S.M.U. 36.1
margin = 8.07
average result when the home team is S.M.U.
Tulane 26.9 S.M.U. 29.2
margin = 2.30
average result when the home team is Tulane
S.M.U. 27.3 Tulane 30.7
margin = 3.40
64.29 % of games went Over
57.14 % went Over at S.M.U.
(since 2005 )
average total points per game = 57.05
time-weighted average total = 64.20
the home team covered 30.00 % of the time
the road team covered 70.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.55
the favorite covered 40.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 60.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.10
the favorite won SU 65.00 % of the time
Tulane covered 60.00 % of the time
S.M.U. covered 40.00 % of the time
S.M.U. covered 20.00 % of the time at home
S.M.U. covered 25.00 % of the time as home favorites
Here is the way our model sees the game. The first score is using season to date stats and the 2nd score is using just the last 4 games. As you can see, not much difference in the predicted outcome.
Tulane 70.5 30 S.M.U. -14.0 49 Tulane 70.5 24 S.M.U. -14.0 46
One of these weeks, Tulane is going to put together a game where they play 4 full quarters as they did against Oklahoma. If they do that here, they cover this number. But we aren’t about to try and guess when the Green Wave will decide to show up.
This is a pass for us. Enjoy the game!