Free Pick – Arizona State at Utah – College Football – 10/16/21

The Utah Utes will host the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday night in a key PAC-12 South division matchup. The game is a toss up (PK) on the board with a current posted total of 51.

This is clearly one of the marquee games of the week. These two teams are tied for first in the PAC-12 South.

Arizona State comes into this game with a 5-1 record overall and 3-0 in conference play. Their two wins of note came against Stanford and UCLA. Their lone loss was at BYU by a score of 27-17.

Utah comes in at 3-2 overall and 2-0 in the conference. The Utes have wins over USC and Washington State. One of their losses came in OT to a very good San Diego State team. Their other loss, ironically, came to BYU by almost the identical score as Arizona States loss to the Cougars, 26-17.

Head to Head History

10/19/2019  Arizona State             3  +14.0  at Utah                     21
11/ 3/2018  Utah                     20  - 8.5  at Arizona State            38
10/21/2017  Arizona State            30  +10.5  at Utah                     10
11/10/2016  Utah                     49  - 5.0  at Arizona State            26
10/17/2015  Arizona State            18  + 6.0  at Utah                     34
11/ 1/2014  Utah                     16  + 6.5  at Arizona State            19
11/ 9/2013  Arizona State            20  - 7.0  at Utah                     19
 9/22/2012  Utah                      7  + 6.5  at Arizona State            37
10/ 8/2011  Arizona State            35  - 3.5  at Utah                     14
 9/ 4/1993  Utah                      0  +13.5  at Arizona State            38
10/ 5/1991  Utah                     15  +15.0  at Arizona State            21

Listed below are the yards per point numbers for each of these teams.

Note that both teams are above average offensively but the number that stands out is Arizona States 19.1 defensive number. That number ranks them 12th in the nation in that all important stat.

Here a look at our models score predictions.

Arizona State             -1.0          20           
Utah                      51.0          22
  
Arizona State             -1.0          27           
Utah                      51.0          20

The first score is the result of using data from every game this season. This is where running data through a model with different time frame parameters can really be useful.

The 2nd score uses only data from the last 4 games. So, for Arizona State it drops their first two blow out wins over UNLV and Southern Utah. For Utah it drops their blowout over Weber State.

What were left with are the games for each team against the more difficult part of their schedules so far. We’re also left with a 7 point Arizona State win, and we agree with that prediction here.

Arizona State pk