The Utah Utes will host the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday night in a key PAC-12 South division matchup. The game is a toss up (PK) on the board with a current posted total of 51.
This is clearly one of the marquee games of the week. These two teams are tied for first in the PAC-12 South.
Arizona State comes into this game with a 5-1 record overall and 3-0 in conference play. Their two wins of note came against Stanford and UCLA. Their lone loss was at BYU by a score of 27-17.
Utah comes in at 3-2 overall and 2-0 in the conference. The Utes have wins over USC and Washington State. One of their losses came in OT to a very good San Diego State team. Their other loss, ironically, came to BYU by almost the identical score as Arizona States loss to the Cougars, 26-17.
Head to Head History
10/19/2019 Arizona State 3 +14.0 at Utah 21 11/ 3/2018 Utah 20 - 8.5 at Arizona State 38 10/21/2017 Arizona State 30 +10.5 at Utah 10 11/10/2016 Utah 49 - 5.0 at Arizona State 26 10/17/2015 Arizona State 18 + 6.0 at Utah 34 11/ 1/2014 Utah 16 + 6.5 at Arizona State 19 11/ 9/2013 Arizona State 20 - 7.0 at Utah 19 9/22/2012 Utah 7 + 6.5 at Arizona State 37 10/ 8/2011 Arizona State 35 - 3.5 at Utah 14 9/ 4/1993 Utah 0 +13.5 at Arizona State 38 10/ 5/1991 Utah 15 +15.0 at Arizona State 21
Listed below are the yards per point numbers for each of these teams.
Note that both teams are above average offensively but the number that stands out is Arizona States 19.1 defensive number. That number ranks them 12th in the nation in that all important stat.
Here a look at our models score predictions.
Arizona State -1.0 20 Utah 51.0 22 Arizona State -1.0 27 Utah 51.0 20
The first score is the result of using data from every game this season. This is where running data through a model with different time frame parameters can really be useful.
The 2nd score uses only data from the last 4 games. So, for Arizona State it drops their first two blow out wins over UNLV and Southern Utah. For Utah it drops their blowout over Weber State.
What were left with are the games for each team against the more difficult part of their schedules so far. We’re also left with a 7 point Arizona State win, and we agree with that prediction here.