Texas A&M will host Auburn in a huge SEC college football matchup on Saturday afternoon with kickoff set for 3:30 PM EST. The Aggies opened as -4 point favorites and that line has risen slightly to -4.5 and 5. The total is 49.5.
Both of these teams are chasing Alabama in the standings in the SEC West, with A&M already having beat the Tide, while Auburn plays Alabama to end the year. Texas A&M is 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play while Auburn is also 6-2 overall and 3-1 in the conference.
Auburn – Texas A&M Head to Head
12/ 5/2020 Texas A&M 31 - 6.5 at Auburn 20
9/21/2019 Auburn 28 + 4.0 at Texas A&M 20
11/ 3/2018 Texas A&M 24 + 3.5 at Auburn 28
11/ 4/2017 Auburn 42 -15.0 at Texas A&M 27
9/17/2016 Texas A&M 29 + 2.5 at Auburn 16
11/ 7/2015 Auburn 26 + 7.0 at Texas A&M 10
11/ 8/2014 Texas A&M 41 +23.5 at Auburn 38
10/19/2013 Auburn 45 +13.5 at Texas A&M 41
10/27/2012 Texas A&M 63 -14.5 at Auburn 21
average outcome:
Auburn 29.3 Texas A&M 31.8
margin = 2.44
time-weighted average outcome:
Auburn 28.0 Texas A&M 27.2
margin = -0.87
average result when the home team is Texas A&M
Auburn 35.3 Texas A&M 24.5
margin = -10.75
average result when the home team is Auburn
Texas A&M 37.6 Auburn 24.6
margin = -13.00
75.00 % of games went Over
66.67 % went Over at Texas A&M
average total points per game = 61.11
time-weighted average total = 55.18
the home team covered 12.50 % of the time
the road team covered 87.50 % of the time
Ave ATS differential =-15.75
the favorite covered 37.50 % of the time
the underdog covered 62.50 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -7.75
the favorite won SU 44.44 % of the time
Auburn covered 50.00 % of the time
Texas A&M covered 50.00 % of the time
Texas A&M covered 0.00 % of the time at home
Texas A&M covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites
Here is how our model sees the game.
Auburn 49.0 19 Texas A&M -4.0 22 Auburn 49.0 23 Texas A&M -4.0 32 Auburn 49.0 19 Texas A&M -4.0 21
The middle score is using data from just the last 4 games. The top score is using season to date data and the bottom one is using the last 7 games.
Texas A&M is the better team here by a slight margin. They also have a nice homefield advantage which will no doubt come into play this week.
Still, if this number continues to rise and we can get +6 or better, we become very interested in the Auburn side. For now, it’s a strong lean.