Free Pick – Auburn at Texas A&M – CFB – 11/6/21

27
auburn vs. texas am pick
$60 in actual member picks FREE from Docs Sports! - Complete with a PROFIT GUARANTEE! Click Here

Texas A&M will host Auburn in a huge SEC college football matchup on Saturday afternoon with kickoff set for 3:30 PM EST. The Aggies opened as -4 point favorites and that line has risen slightly to -4.5 and 5. The total is 49.5.

Both of these teams are chasing Alabama in the standings in the SEC West, with A&M already having beat the Tide, while Auburn plays Alabama to end the year.  Texas A&M is 6-2 overall and 3-2 in conference play while Auburn is also 6-2 overall and 3-1 in the conference.

Auburn – Texas A&M Head to Head

12/ 5/2020  Texas A&M                31  - 6.5  at Auburn                   20
 9/21/2019  Auburn                   28  + 4.0  at Texas A&M                20
11/ 3/2018  Texas A&M                24  + 3.5  at Auburn                   28
11/ 4/2017  Auburn                   42  -15.0  at Texas A&M                27
 9/17/2016  Texas A&M                29  + 2.5  at Auburn                   16
11/ 7/2015  Auburn                   26  + 7.0  at Texas A&M                10
11/ 8/2014  Texas A&M                41  +23.5  at Auburn                   38
10/19/2013  Auburn                   45  +13.5  at Texas A&M                41
10/27/2012  Texas A&M                63  -14.5  at Auburn                   21
  
   average outcome:
     Auburn                  29.3  Texas A&M               31.8
     margin =   2.44
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Auburn                  28.0  Texas A&M               27.2
     margin =  -0.87
  
   average result when the home team is Texas A&M              
     Auburn                  35.3  Texas A&M               24.5
     margin = -10.75
  
   average result when the home team is Auburn                 
     Texas A&M               37.6  Auburn                  24.6
     margin = -13.00
  
    75.00 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Texas A&M              
  
   average total points per game =  61.11
   time-weighted average total   =  55.18
  
   the home team covered  12.50 % of the time
   the road team covered  87.50 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =-15.75
  
   the favorite  covered  37.50 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  62.50 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -7.75
  
   the favorite won SU    44.44 % of the time
  
   Auburn                  covered  50.00 % of the time
   Texas A&M               covered  50.00 % of the time
  
   Texas A&M               covered   0.00 % of the time at home
   Texas A&M               covered   0.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here is how our model sees the game.

Auburn                    49.0          19           
Texas A&M                 -4.0          22
  
Auburn                    49.0          23           
Texas A&M                 -4.0          32
  
Auburn                    49.0          19           
Texas A&M                 -4.0          21

The middle score is using data from just the last 4 games. The top score is using season to date data and the bottom one is using the last 7 games.

Texas A&M is the better team here by a slight margin. They also have a nice homefield advantage which will no doubt come into play this week.

Still, if this number continues to rise and we can get +6 or better, we become very interested in the Auburn side. For now, it’s a strong lean.

Auburn +5