Free Pick – Boston College at Clemson – College Football – 10/2/21

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Boston College at Clemson

Clemson will host Boston College this Saturday night at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM EST with the Tigers currently favored by 16 and a total of 46. The ACC Network will televise the game.

BC comes into this game undefeated at 4-0. Their first three games came against weak opposition as they beat Colgate, UMASS and Temple. But last week they knocked off a decent Missouri team 41-34 in OT.

Clemson comes into this game 2-2. They lost to Georgia in week 1 and lost last week to NC State. Their wins came against South Carolina State and Georgia Tech. While it’s still early, one thing is clear. They miss Trevor Lawrence. He really opened up this offense which to date has struggled.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/31/2020  Boston College           28  +26.5  at Clemson                  34
10/26/2019  Boston College            7  +35.0  at Clemson                  59
11/10/2018  Clemson                  27  -19.0  at Boston College            7
 9/23/2017  Boston College            7  +33.0  at Clemson                  34
10/ 7/2016  Clemson                  56  -17.0  at Boston College           10
10/17/2015  Boston College           17  +16.5  at Clemson                  34
10/18/2014  Clemson                  17  - 5.0  at Boston College           13
10/12/2013  Boston College           14  +24.0  at Clemson                  24
 9/29/2012  Clemson                  45  - 7.0  at Boston College           31
10/ 8/2011  Boston College           14  +21.0  at Clemson                  36
10/30/2010  Clemson                  10  - 7.0  at Boston College           16
 9/19/2009  Boston College            7  + 7.0  at Clemson                  25
11/ 1/2008  Clemson                  27  + 3.5  at Boston College           21
11/17/2007  Boston College           20  + 7.0  at Clemson                  17
 9/ 9/2006  Clemson                  33  - 1.0  at Boston College           34
 9/24/2005  Boston College           16  + 3.5  at Clemson                  13
  
   average outcome:
     Boston College          16.4  Clemson                 30.7
     margin =  14.31
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Boston College          13.7  Clemson                 38.2
     margin =  24.49
  
   average result when the home team is Clemson                
     Boston College          14.4  Clemson                 30.7
     margin =  16.22
  
   average result when the home team is Boston College         
     Clemson                 30.7  Boston College          18.9
     margin = -11.86
  
    43.75 % of games went Over
    33.33 % went Over at Clemson                
  
   average total points per game =  47.06
   time-weighted average total   =  51.97
  
   the home team covered  43.75 % of the time
   the road team covered  56.25 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.63
  
   the favorite  covered  43.75 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  56.25 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.00
  
   the favorite won SU    68.75 % of the time
  
   Boston College          covered  50.00 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  50.00 % of the time
  
   Clemson                 covered  44.44 % of the time at home
   Clemson                 covered  44.44 % of the time as home favorites

Our Pick

Prior to 2015 and Clemson seemingly in the national title game every year, this series was actually close and competitive. There’s a whole bunch of games decided by a TD or less and even some straight up BC wins. Then of course last season was a 34-27 Clemson win.

It looks to us as though Clemson has returned to their pre 2015 form without Lawrence. Meanwhile, Boston College is running the ball well and putting some points on the board. Sure, some questionable opponents. But last weeks win over Missouri proved they can also do it against teams with a pulse.

There’s always the chance that this is the week Clemson puts it all together and explodes offensively. But that certainly doesn’t look likely based on what we’ve seen so far.

The +16 points were getting with BC could loom large here.

Boston College +16