BYU at Utah State
Utah State hosts BYU on Friday in a game scheduled to kick off at 9 PM EST. The game can be seen on the CBS Sports Network. BYU is favored by 9 as of Tuesday and is drawing just about all of the money. The total is 62.5.
Utah State comes into this game at 3-1. They won their first three games against Washington State, North Dakota and Air Force. The lost last week to Boise State, 27-3.
BYU comes in undefeated at 4-0. They have knocked off, Arizona, Utah, Arizona State and South Florida. Both Utah and Arizona State were picked by many to be among the best in the nation this year. They only beat South Florida by a TD, but were ahead 21-0 in the first quarter.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games):
11/ 2/2019 B.Y.U. 42 + 3.0 at Utah State 14
10/ 5/2018 Utah State 45 + 0.0 at B.Y.U. 20
9/29/2017 B.Y.U. 24 + 1.0 at Utah State 40
11/26/2016 Utah State 10 +17.0 at B.Y.U. 28
11/28/2015 B.Y.U. 51 - 3.0 at Utah State 28
10/ 3/2014 Utah State 35 +21.0 at B.Y.U. 20
10/ 4/2013 B.Y.U. 31 + 6.0 at Utah State 14
10/ 5/2012 Utah State 3 + 6.5 at B.Y.U. 6
9/30/2011 Utah State 24 + 7.5 at B.Y.U. 27
10/ 1/2010 B.Y.U. 16 - 4.0 at Utah State 31
10/ 2/2009 Utah State 17 +24.0 at B.Y.U. 35
10/ 3/2008 B.Y.U. 34 -29.0 at Utah State 14
9/23/2006 Utah State 0 +25.0 at B.Y.U. 38
10/ 4/2002 B.Y.U. 35 -14.0 at Utah State 34
10/ 5/2001 Utah State 34 +17.5 at B.Y.U. 54
10/ 6/2000 Utah State 14 +17.5 at B.Y.U. 38
10/ 1/1999 B.Y.U. 34 -18.5 at Utah State 31
10/ 3/1997 Utah State 35 +13.5 at B.Y.U. 42
10/ 4/1996 B.Y.U. 45 -14.0 at Utah State 17
9/30/1994 Utah State 6 +24.5 at B.Y.U. 34
10/30/1993 B.Y.U. 56 - 7.5 at Utah State 58
10/ 2/1992 Utah State 9 +20.0 at B.Y.U. 30
average outcome:
B.Y.U. 33.6 Utah State 23.3
margin = -10.32
time-weighted average outcome:
B.Y.U. 30.6 Utah State 26.7
margin = -3.91
average result when the home team is Utah State
B.Y.U. 36.8 Utah State 28.1
margin = -8.70
average result when the home team is B.Y.U.
Utah State 19.3 B.Y.U. 31.0
margin = 11.67
56.25 % of games went Over
57.14 % went Over at Utah State
(since 2000 )
average total points per game = 56.95
time-weighted average total = 57.25
the home team covered 54.55 % of the time
the road team covered 45.45 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.77
the favorite covered 42.86 % of the time
the underdog covered 57.14 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -5.95
the favorite won SU 76.19 % of the time
B.Y.U. covered 45.45 % of the time
Utah State covered 54.55 % of the time
Utah State covered 60.00 % of the time at home
Utah State covered 71.43 % of the time as home underdogs
Our Pick
BYU won big the last time these two met in 2019. But it was as recently as 2017 and 2018 that Utah State not only competed with BYU, they beat them straight up! So we know that as far as talent goes, Utah State isn’t out of their league.
It’s been a dog series with the dog winning at a 57% clip. When that dog is Utah State at home, that cover percentage increases to 71%.
Lastly, our model has BYU winning a close one by 2 to 5 points. The current number is 9. With any luck, the line will continue to move and we’ll be able to get +10 or more.
For now, here on Tuesday, we’ll put this out as a play at +9 and will update this later in the week if need be.