BYU at Utah State – Free College Football Pick ATS – 10/1/21

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byu at utah state cfb friday night pick ats
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BYU at Utah State

Utah State hosts BYU on Friday in a game scheduled to kick off at 9 PM EST. The game can be seen on the CBS Sports Network. BYU is favored by 9 as of Tuesday and is drawing just about all of the money. The total is 62.5.

Utah State comes into this game at 3-1. They won their first three games against Washington State, North Dakota and Air Force. The lost last week to Boise State, 27-3.

BYU comes in undefeated at 4-0. They have knocked off, Arizona, Utah, Arizona State and South Florida. Both Utah and Arizona State were picked by many to be among the best in the nation this year. They only beat South Florida by a TD, but were ahead 21-0 in the first quarter.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
11/ 2/2019  B.Y.U.                   42  + 3.0  at Utah State               14
10/ 5/2018  Utah State               45  + 0.0  at B.Y.U.                   20
 9/29/2017  B.Y.U.                   24  + 1.0  at Utah State               40
11/26/2016  Utah State               10  +17.0  at B.Y.U.                   28
11/28/2015  B.Y.U.                   51  - 3.0  at Utah State               28
10/ 3/2014  Utah State               35  +21.0  at B.Y.U.                   20
10/ 4/2013  B.Y.U.                   31  + 6.0  at Utah State               14
10/ 5/2012  Utah State                3  + 6.5  at B.Y.U.                    6
 9/30/2011  Utah State               24  + 7.5  at B.Y.U.                   27
10/ 1/2010  B.Y.U.                   16  - 4.0  at Utah State               31
10/ 2/2009  Utah State               17  +24.0  at B.Y.U.                   35
10/ 3/2008  B.Y.U.                   34  -29.0  at Utah State               14
 9/23/2006  Utah State                0  +25.0  at B.Y.U.                   38
10/ 4/2002  B.Y.U.                   35  -14.0  at Utah State               34
10/ 5/2001  Utah State               34  +17.5  at B.Y.U.                   54
10/ 6/2000  Utah State               14  +17.5  at B.Y.U.                   38
10/ 1/1999  B.Y.U.                   34  -18.5  at Utah State               31
10/ 3/1997  Utah State               35  +13.5  at B.Y.U.                   42
10/ 4/1996  B.Y.U.                   45  -14.0  at Utah State               17
 9/30/1994  Utah State                6  +24.5  at B.Y.U.                   34
10/30/1993  B.Y.U.                   56  - 7.5  at Utah State               58
10/ 2/1992  Utah State                9  +20.0  at B.Y.U.                   30
  
   average outcome:
     B.Y.U.                  33.6  Utah State              23.3
     margin = -10.32
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     B.Y.U.                  30.6  Utah State              26.7
     margin =  -3.91
  
   average result when the home team is Utah State             
     B.Y.U.                  36.8  Utah State              28.1
     margin =  -8.70
  
   average result when the home team is B.Y.U.                 
     Utah State              19.3  B.Y.U.                  31.0
     margin =  11.67
  
    56.25 % of games went Over
    57.14 % went Over at Utah State             
    (since        2000 )
  
   average total points per game =  56.95
   time-weighted average total   =  57.25
  
   the home team covered  54.55 % of the time
   the road team covered  45.45 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.77
  
   the favorite  covered  42.86 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  57.14 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.95
  
   the favorite won SU    76.19 % of the time
  
   B.Y.U.                  covered  45.45 % of the time
   Utah State              covered  54.55 % of the time
  
   Utah State              covered  60.00 % of the time at home
   Utah State              covered  71.43 % of the time as home underdogs

Our Pick

BYU won big the last time these two met in 2019. But it was as recently as 2017 and 2018 that Utah State not only competed with BYU, they beat them straight up! So we know that as far as talent goes, Utah State isn’t out of their league.

It’s been a dog series with the dog winning at a 57% clip. When that dog is Utah State at home, that cover percentage increases to 71%.

Lastly, our model has BYU winning a close one by 2 to 5 points. The current number is 9. With any luck, the line will continue to move and we’ll be able to get +10 or more.

For now, here on Tuesday, we’ll put this out as a play at +9 and will update this later in the week if need be.

Utah State +9