Pittsburgh will host Clemson in ACC college football action this week with the Panthers favored by 3.5 and a current posted total of 48. The game kick of off at 3:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN/ABC.
What a difference a year makes! The last 3 times these two teams played, Clemson was favored by 23.5, 27.5 and 21. But this year, the Clemson Tigers have trouble even coming close to scoring that many points in a game, let alone cover a big number.
Pitt, on the other hand, has been a scoring machine. True, they haven’t faced a defense like Clemson’s, which is still among the best in college football. But it does bring up the question of whether or not Clemson can keep up if Pitt manages a couple of quick scores.
Head to Head History – CLEMSON – PITT
11/28/2020 Pittsburgh 17 +23.5 at Clemson 52
12/ 1/2018 Pittsburgh 10 +27.5 vs Clemson 42
11/12/2016 Pittsburgh 43 +21.0 at Clemson 42
average outcome:
Clemson 45.3 Pittsburgh 23.3
margin = -22.00
time-weighted average outcome:
Clemson 46.3 Pittsburgh 20.9
margin = -25.43
average result when the home team is Clemson
Pittsburgh 30.0 Clemson 47.0
margin = 17.00
66.67 % of games went Over
average total points per game = 68.67
time-weighted average total = 67.14
the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -3.00
the favorite covered 66.67 % of the time
the underdog covered 33.33 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.00
the favorite won SU 66.67 % of the time
Clemson covered 66.67 % of the time
Pittsburgh covered 33.33 % of the time
Our model is of no hope as far as the side goes in this one as it predicts two scenarios. Using full season data it suggests more of the same for a Clemson game. A low scoring game favoring the Tigers to cover.
Clemson 47.0 15 Pittsburgh -4.0 16 Clemson 47.0 8 Pittsburgh -4.0 29
The 2nd prediction covers the scenario we mentioned at the top of this page, specifically, Clemson not being able to keep up if Pitt pops a couple of scores on the board.
Both prediction favor the under though, which is the way we’ll lean in this one.