Free Pick – Clemson at Pittsburgh – College Football – 10/23/21

clemson at pitt pick
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Pittsburgh will host Clemson in ACC college football action this week with the Panthers favored by 3.5 and a current posted total of 48. The game kick of off at 3:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN/ABC.

What a difference a year makes! The last 3 times these two teams played, Clemson was favored by 23.5, 27.5 and 21. But this year, the Clemson Tigers have trouble even coming close to scoring that many points in a game, let alone cover a big number.

Pitt, on the other hand, has been a scoring machine. True, they haven’t faced a defense like Clemson’s, which is still among the best in college football. But it does bring up the question of whether or not Clemson can keep up if Pitt manages a couple of quick scores.

Head to Head History – CLEMSON – PITT

11/28/2020  Pittsburgh               17  +23.5  at Clemson                  52
12/ 1/2018  Pittsburgh               10  +27.5  vs Clemson                  42
11/12/2016  Pittsburgh               43  +21.0  at Clemson                  42
   average outcome:
     Clemson                 45.3  Pittsburgh              23.3
     margin = -22.00
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Clemson                 46.3  Pittsburgh              20.9
     margin = -25.43
   average result when the home team is Clemson                
     Pittsburgh              30.0  Clemson                 47.0
     margin =  17.00
    66.67 % of games went Over
   average total points per game =  68.67
   time-weighted average total   =  67.14
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.00
   the favorite  covered  66.67 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  33.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.00
   the favorite won SU    66.67 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  66.67 % of the time
   Pittsburgh              covered  33.33 % of the time

Our model is of no hope as far as the side goes in this one as it predicts two scenarios. Using full season data it suggests more of the same for a Clemson game. A low scoring game favoring the Tigers to cover.

Clemson                   47.0          15           
Pittsburgh                -4.0          16
Clemson                   47.0           8           
Pittsburgh                -4.0          29

The 2nd prediction covers the scenario we mentioned at the top of this page, specifically, Clemson not being able to keep up if Pitt pops a couple of scores on the board.

Both prediction favor the under though, which is the way we’ll lean in this one.


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