Miami will host NC State on Saturday as a +3.5 home underdog. The current total is 53 and the game can be seen on ESPN2 at 7:30 pm est.
NC State is rolling along at 5-1, 2-0 in conference play. That 2-0 mark puts them in 2nd place behind 4-0 Wake Forest who has 2 games in hand. The Wolfpack’s only loss this year came to Miss State, 24-10.
Miami finds themselves a disappointing 2-4, 0-2 in conference play. Their last two losses came by 2 and 3 points to Virginia and UNC.
Head to Head History
11/ 6/2020 Miami 44 - 9.5 at North Carolina State 41
11/19/2016 Miami 27 - 2.5 at North Carolina State 13
9/29/2012 North Carolina State 37 + 2.5 at Miami 44
11/29/2008 Miami 28 - 1.5 at North Carolina State 38
11/ 3/2007 North Carolina State 19 +13.5 at Miami 16
10/23/2004 Miami 45 - 7.5 at North Carolina State 31
12/29/1998 North Carolina State 23 + 7.0 ~@ Miami 46
average outcome:
North Carolina State 28.9 Miami 35.7
margin = 6.86
time-weighted average outcome:
North Carolina State 31.3 Miami 38.2
margin = 6.91
average result when the home team is Miami
North Carolina State 28.0 Miami 30.0
margin = 2.00
average result when the home team is North Carolina State
Miami 36.0 North Carolina State 30.8
margin = -5.25
71.43 % of games went Over
50.00 % went Over at Miami
average total points per game = 64.57
time-weighted average total = 69.52
the home team covered 57.14 % of the time
the road team covered 42.86 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.57
the favorite covered 57.14 % of the time
the underdog covered 42.86 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.57
the favorite won SU 71.43 % of the time
North Carolina State covered 42.86 % of the time
Miami covered 57.14 % of the time
Miami covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Predicted score from our model. First score uses full season data, 2nd score uses last 4 games only.
North Carolina State -3.5 26 Miami 52.5 19 North Carolina State -3.5 33 Miami 52.5 27
Here are the yards per point numbers for both teams. First number is offense, 2nd defense. The lower the offensive number, the more efficient the offense. The higher the 2nd number, the better the defense.
| 13.7 | 19.9 |
| 15 | 11.7 |
NC State has simply been the better team on both sides of the ball this year. We agree with the model here. We’ll lay the small spot.