Free Pick – Duke at Virginia – College Football – 10/16/21

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duke at virginia free cfb pick ats
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Duke will travel to Virginia to take on Cavs on Saturday as 11 point underdogs. The game kicks off at 12:30 PM EST and the current posted total is a whopping 69 points.

Duke comes into this game at 3-3 overall but 0-2 in conference play. That 0-2 places them in last in the ACC Coastal division. Dukes wins came against NC A&T, Northwestern and Kansas. They lost to Charlotte, North Carolina and Georgia Tech.

Virginia finds themselves at 3-2 overall and 2-2 in conference play. The Cavs have literally squeaked by the past two weeks, beating Miami by 2 and Louisville by 1.

Head to Head History

9/26/2020   Duke                     20  + 5.5  at Virginia                 38
10/19/2019  Duke                     14  + 3.5  at Virginia                 48
10/20/2018  Virginia                 28  + 6.5  at Duke                     14
10/ 7/2017  Duke                     21  + 2.5  at Virginia                 28
10/ 1/2016  Virginia                 34  + 3.0  at Duke                     20
11/21/2015  Duke                     34  + 2.0  at Virginia                 42
10/18/2014  Virginia                 13  + 3.0  at Duke                     20
10/19/2013  Duke                     35  + 3.0  at Virginia                 22
10/ 6/2012  Virginia                 17  + 1.0  at Duke                     42
11/12/2011  Duke                     21  +10.0  at Virginia                 31
11/ 6/2010  Virginia                 48  - 1.0  at Duke                     55
10/31/2009  Duke                     28  + 7.0  at Virginia                 17
 9/27/2008  Virginia                  3  + 7.0  at Duke                     31
 9/ 8/2007  Duke                     13  +17.0  at Virginia                 24
 9/30/2006  Virginia                 37  - 6.5  at Duke                      0
 9/24/2005  Duke                      7  +25.0  at Virginia                 38
10/23/2004  Virginia                 37  -23.5  at Duke                     16
 8/30/2003  Duke                      0  +15.0  at Virginia                 27
10/ 5/2002  Virginia                 27  -12.0  at Duke                     22
 9/29/2001  Duke                     10  +18.5  at Virginia                 31
 9/16/2000  Virginia                 26  -20.0  at Duke                     10
10/ 9/1999  Duke                     24  +17.0  at Virginia                 17
 9/26/1998  Virginia                 24  -10.0  at Duke                      0
10/18/1997  Duke                     10  +16.0  at Virginia                 13
11/ 2/1996  Virginia                 27  -25.5  at Duke                      3
10/14/1995  Duke                     30  +22.5  at Virginia                 44
11/ 5/1994  Virginia                 25  - 7.0  at Duke                     28
 9/25/1993  Duke                      0  +18.0  at Virginia                 35
 9/26/1992  Virginia                 55  -16.5  at Duke                     28
 9/28/1991  Duke                      3  + 7.0  at Virginia                 34
 9/22/1990  Virginia                 59  -16.0  at Duke                      0

As you can see, Virginia has dominated this series over the last two decades and has won the last 6. In those 6 wins, all but one were by 10 points or more. The other win was by 7.

Our model also has Virginia winning and continuing their dominance, predicting a margin that would easily get the Cavs the cover.

Virginia -11