Duke will travel to Virginia to take on Cavs on Saturday as 11 point underdogs. The game kicks off at 12:30 PM EST and the current posted total is a whopping 69 points.
Duke comes into this game at 3-3 overall but 0-2 in conference play. That 0-2 places them in last in the ACC Coastal division. Dukes wins came against NC A&T, Northwestern and Kansas. They lost to Charlotte, North Carolina and Georgia Tech.
Virginia finds themselves at 3-2 overall and 2-2 in conference play. The Cavs have literally squeaked by the past two weeks, beating Miami by 2 and Louisville by 1.
Head to Head History
9/26/2020 Duke 20 + 5.5 at Virginia 38 10/19/2019 Duke 14 + 3.5 at Virginia 48 10/20/2018 Virginia 28 + 6.5 at Duke 14 10/ 7/2017 Duke 21 + 2.5 at Virginia 28 10/ 1/2016 Virginia 34 + 3.0 at Duke 20 11/21/2015 Duke 34 + 2.0 at Virginia 42 10/18/2014 Virginia 13 + 3.0 at Duke 20 10/19/2013 Duke 35 + 3.0 at Virginia 22 10/ 6/2012 Virginia 17 + 1.0 at Duke 42 11/12/2011 Duke 21 +10.0 at Virginia 31 11/ 6/2010 Virginia 48 - 1.0 at Duke 55 10/31/2009 Duke 28 + 7.0 at Virginia 17 9/27/2008 Virginia 3 + 7.0 at Duke 31 9/ 8/2007 Duke 13 +17.0 at Virginia 24 9/30/2006 Virginia 37 - 6.5 at Duke 0 9/24/2005 Duke 7 +25.0 at Virginia 38 10/23/2004 Virginia 37 -23.5 at Duke 16 8/30/2003 Duke 0 +15.0 at Virginia 27 10/ 5/2002 Virginia 27 -12.0 at Duke 22 9/29/2001 Duke 10 +18.5 at Virginia 31 9/16/2000 Virginia 26 -20.0 at Duke 10 10/ 9/1999 Duke 24 +17.0 at Virginia 17 9/26/1998 Virginia 24 -10.0 at Duke 0 10/18/1997 Duke 10 +16.0 at Virginia 13 11/ 2/1996 Virginia 27 -25.5 at Duke 3 10/14/1995 Duke 30 +22.5 at Virginia 44 11/ 5/1994 Virginia 25 - 7.0 at Duke 28 9/25/1993 Duke 0 +18.0 at Virginia 35 9/26/1992 Virginia 55 -16.5 at Duke 28 9/28/1991 Duke 3 + 7.0 at Virginia 34 9/22/1990 Virginia 59 -16.0 at Duke 0
As you can see, Virginia has dominated this series over the last two decades and has won the last 6. In those 6 wins, all but one were by 10 points or more. The other win was by 7.
Our model also has Virginia winning and continuing their dominance, predicting a margin that would easily get the Cavs the cover.