Free Pick – Florida State at Clemson – CFB – 10/30/21

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florida state at clemson pick
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Clemson will host Florida State on Saturday at 3:30 PM EST in a game that can be seen on ESPN. The Tigers opened as -10.5 point favorites and have been bet down to -9.5 as of this late week writing. The total is 47.

Clemson is 4-3 overall and 3-2 in conference play. They are still very much alive in the ACC title game chase as they still have 1st place and 4-0 Wake Forest on their schedule in a few weeks. They need to keep winning in the meantime.

Florida State is 3-4 overall and 2-2- in conference play. Just like Clemson, they are still alive in terms of conference aspirations. We can’t quite stick a fork in them yet, providing they can win out. They have their work cut out for them.

Head to Head History Florida State – Clemson

10/12/2019  Florida State            14  +26.0  at Clemson                  45
10/27/2018  Clemson                  59  -17.5  at Florida State            10
11/11/2017  Florida State            14  +16.0  at Clemson                  31
10/29/2016  Clemson                  37  - 4.5  at Florida State            34
11/ 7/2015  Florida State            13  +10.5  at Clemson                  23
 9/20/2014  Clemson                  17  +14.5  at Florida State            23
10/19/2013  Florida State            51  - 3.0  at Clemson                  14
 9/22/2012  Clemson                  37  +14.0  at Florida State            49
 9/24/2011  Florida State            30  + 2.5  at Clemson                  35
11/13/2010  Clemson                  13  + 5.5  at Florida State            16
11/ 7/2009  Florida State            24  + 9.5  at Clemson                  40
11/ 8/2008  Clemson                  27  + 4.0  at Florida State            41
 9/ 3/2007  Florida State            18  - 1.5  at Clemson                  24
 9/16/2006  Clemson                  27  + 4.5  at Florida State            20
11/12/2005  Florida State            14  - 3.0  at Clemson                  35
 9/25/2004  Clemson                  22  +18.0  at Florida State            41
11/ 8/2003  Florida State            10  -17.0  at Clemson                  26
10/ 3/2002  Clemson                  31  +17.5  at Florida State            48
11/ 3/2001  Florida State            41  - 7.5  at Clemson                  27
11/ 4/2000  Clemson                   7  +18.5  at Florida State            54
10/23/1999  Florida State            17  -16.0  at Clemson                  14
10/17/1998  Clemson                   0  +27.0  at Florida State            48
 9/20/1997  Florida State            35  -20.0  at Clemson                  28
10/ 5/1996  Clemson                   3  +29.5  at Florida State            34
 9/ 9/1995  Florida State            45  -20.5  at Clemson                  26
10/22/1994  Clemson                   0  +30.0  at Florida State            17
 9/11/1993  Clemson                   0  +23.0  at Florida State            57
 9/12/1992  Florida State            24  - 6.5  at Clemson                  20
  
   average outcome:
     Florida State           30.1  Clemson                 23.9
     margin =  -6.21
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Florida State           20.3  Clemson                 36.6
     margin =  16.34
  
   average result when the home team is Clemson                
     Florida State           25.0  Clemson                 27.7
     margin =   2.71
  
   average result when the home team is Florida State          
     Clemson                 20.0  Florida State           35.1
     margin =  15.14
  
    63.64 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Clemson                
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  53.93
   time-weighted average total   =  56.94
  
   the home team covered  64.29 % of the time
   the road team covered  35.71 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.45
  
   the favorite  covered  46.43 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  53.57 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.73
  
   the favorite won SU    85.71 % of the time
  
   Florida State           covered  35.71 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  64.29 % of the time
  
   Clemson                 covered  78.57 % of the time at home
   Clemson                 covered  80.00 % of the time as home favorites

Early bettors scooped up the +10’s and we can certainly see why. This Clemson offense has been brutal. Throw out the South Carolina State game. That doesn’t count. In every other game this year they have been held to 17 points or less with the exception of scoring 21 in a loss to NC State. You can’t lay significant points with an offense that can’t put points on the board.

Florida State has been in every game this year. They run the ball well, gaining 6 yards per rush attempt and have faced much stronger offenses than the one Clemson will field on Saturday. Nothing we have seen from either team suggests this is anything other than a tight game. We’d prefer +10 or more obviously, so wait and see if 10’s come back!

Florida State +9.5 (wait for +10)