Free Pick – Fresno State at UCLA – College Football ATS Stats – 9/18/21

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fresno state at ucla free cfb pick with ats stats
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UCLA will host Fresno State tonight in a game that kicks off at 1045 PM EST. and can be seen on the PAC-12 Network. The Bruins are favored by 11 with a total of 63.

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The most recent meeting between these two teams was in 2018, a game in which Fresno State handles UCLA easily, 38-14.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
 9/15/2018  Fresno State             38  - 2.5  at UCLA                     14
 9/27/2008  Fresno State             36  - 6.5  at UCLA                     31
12/30/2003  UCLA                      9  - 4.0  vs Fresno State             17
 9/ 9/2000  Fresno State             21  +14.5  at UCLA                     24
 9/18/1999  Fresno State             21  +21.0  at UCLA                     35
 9/30/1995  Fresno State             21  +11.0  at UCLA                     45
  
   average outcome:
     Fresno State            25.7  UCLA                    26.3
     margin =   0.67
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Fresno State            37.0  UCLA                    15.0
     margin = -22.03
  
   average result when the home team is UCLA                   
     Fresno State            27.4  UCLA                    29.8
     margin =   2.40
  
    75.00 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at UCLA                   
  
   average total points per game =  52.00
   time-weighted average total   =  52.00
  
   the home team covered  40.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.70
  
   the favorite  covered  33.33 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  66.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.42
  
   the favorite won SU    83.33 % of the time
  
   Fresno State            covered  66.67 % of the time
   UCLA                    covered  33.33 % of the time
  
   UCLA                    covered  40.00 % of the time at home
   UCLA                    covered  33.33 % of the time as home favorites

Our Pick

Using a blend of date from last year and this year, our model has UCLA winning this game by 20+ points. However, while we’re hesitant to disagree with the model as the season progresses, we have no problem doing so in the early going.

Fresno figure to be a tough out for UCLA. The Bulldogs already went toe to toe with Oregon and we all saw what Oregon did on the road at Ohio State last week.

We especially think the early going in this game favor a Fresno State team playing it\s 4th game of the season.

1st quarter Fresno State +3.5

1st half Fresno State +6.5

Full game Fresno State +11