Free Pick – San Jose at Hawaii – College Football – ATS Stats – 9/19/21

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san jose at hawaii pick
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San Jose makes the trip to beautiful Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors tonight at 12:30 AM EST. Ok, it’s actually tomorrow! San Jose is a -7 point favorite with a total of 62.

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Hawaii comes into the game at 1-2 with losses to Oregon State and UCLA. They beat Portland State.

San Jose won their opener against Southern Utah but lost to USC, 30-7.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/ 5/2020  San Jose State           35  + 6.0  at Hawaii                   24
11/ 9/2019  San Jose State           40  + 8.0  at Hawaii                   42
 9/29/2018  Hawaii                   44  - 9.5  at San Jose State           41
10/14/2017  San Jose State           26  +17.0  at Hawaii                   37
10/ 8/2016  Hawaii                   34  + 3.0  at San Jose State           17
11/21/2015  San Jose State           42  -10.0  at Hawaii                   23
11/15/2014  Hawaii                   13  + 9.5  at San Jose State            0
10/ 5/2013  San Jose State           37  - 4.5  at Hawaii                   27
10/14/2011  Hawaii                   27  - 6.0  at San Jose State           28
11/20/2010  San Jose State            7  +30.0  at Hawaii                   41
11/21/2009  Hawaii                   17  - 3.0  at San Jose State           10
 9/27/2008  San Jose State           20  + 3.0  at Hawaii                   17
10/12/2007  Hawaii                   42  -17.0  at San Jose State           35
11/18/2006  San Jose State           17  +22.5  at Hawaii                   54
10/22/2005  Hawaii                   45  - 6.0  at San Jose State           38
10/23/2004  San Jose State           28  +22.0  at Hawaii                   46
11/ 1/2003  Hawaii                   13  -12.5  at San Jose State           10
11/ 2/2002  San Jose State           31  +22.5  at Hawaii                   40
11/ 3/2001  San Jose State           10  +11.5  at Hawaii                   34
10/28/2000  San Jose State           57  - 8.5  at Hawaii                   48
11/ 6/1999  Hawaii                   62  + 2.0  at San Jose State           41
11/ 7/1998  San Jose State           45  - 7.5  at Hawaii                   17
11/15/1997  Hawaii                   14  + 0.0  at San Jose State           38
11/ 9/1996  San Jose State           38  + 4.0  at Hawaii                   17
  
   average outcome:
     San Jose State          28.8  Hawaii                  32.4
     margin =   3.63
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     San Jose State          31.8  Hawaii                  32.7
     margin =   0.88
  
   average result when the home team is Hawaii                 
     San Jose State          30.9  Hawaii                  33.4
     margin =   2.43
  
   average result when the home team is San Jose State         
     Hawaii                  31.1  San Jose State          25.8
     margin =  -5.30
  
    55.56 % of games went Over
    70.00 % went Over at Hawaii                 
    (since        2001 )
  
   average total points per game =  61.21
   time-weighted average total   =  64.49
  
   the home team covered  33.33 % of the time
   the road team covered  66.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.98
  
   the favorite  covered  39.13 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  60.87 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.50
  
   the favorite won SU    69.57 % of the time
  
   San Jose State          covered  66.67 % of the time
   Hawaii                  covered  33.33 % of the time
  
   Hawaii                  covered  21.43 % of the time at home
   Hawaii                  covered   0.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Our Pick

Recent series history would seem to favor Hawaii as there have been some very close games. However, San Jose is fully intact from a year ago and that Spartans team was a force.

San Jose was close with USC into the 4th quarter. We look for them to rebound here and grab the win. Our model has this game close to the number, so just a small play, but it’s San Jose for us.

San Jose -7