Free Pick – Houston at Tulsa – College Football Pick ATS – 10/1/21

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houston at tulsa cfp pick ats
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Houston at Tulsa

Tulsa will host Houston on Friday night as a -3.5 point home favorite. The current total early in the week is 57. Of the three college football games on Friday night, this one will have the most eyeballs as it’s being broadcast on ESPN.

Tulsa is a bit difficult to get a read on in the early going. They dropped their first game to UC Davis, known more for their hoops! They then lost a close one to Oklahoma State and hung with Ohio State. Last week they beat Arkansas State by a TD.

Houston is 3-1. They lost to Texas Tech and beat Rice, Grambling and Navy. So, nothing overly impressive for sure. Certainly Tulsa has looked more impressive losing than Houston has winning, based on the strength of their opponents.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
11/23/2019  Houston                  24  + 3.0  at Tulsa                    14
10/ 4/2018  Tulsa                    26  +18.5  at Houston                  41
10/14/2017  Houston                  17  -13.5  at Tulsa                    45
10/15/2016  Tulsa                    31  +21.0  at Houston                  38
10/ 3/2015  Houston                  38  - 9.0  at Tulsa                    24
11/22/2014  Tulsa                    28  +21.0  at Houston                  38
11/10/2012  Tulsa                    41  - 3.5  at Houston                   7
11/25/2011  Houston                  48  - 3.0  at Tulsa                    16
11/13/2010  Tulsa                    28  + 2.5  at Houston                  25
11/ 7/2009  Houston                  46  - 1.5  at Tulsa                    45
11/15/2008  Tulsa                    30  - 4.0  at Houston                  70
11/10/2007  Houston                   7  + 2.5  at Tulsa                    56
11/ 4/2006  Tulsa                    10  - 2.5  at Houston                  27
10/ 1/2005  Houston                  30  + 3.5  at Tulsa                    23
 9/11/1993  Tulsa                    38  + 3.5  at Houston                  24
 9/ 5/1992  Houston                  25  - 2.0  at Tulsa                    28
  
   average outcome:
     Houston                 31.6  Tulsa                   30.2
     margin =  -1.38
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Houston                 30.8  Tulsa                   27.7
     margin =  -3.06
  
   average result when the home team is Tulsa                  
     Houston                 29.4  Tulsa                   31.4
     margin =   2.00
  
   average result when the home team is Houston                
     Tulsa                   29.0  Houston                 33.8
     margin =   4.75
  
    21.43 % of games went Over
    14.29 % went Over at Tulsa                  
    (since        2005 )
  
   average total points per game =  61.75
   time-weighted average total   =  58.50
  
   the home team covered  37.50 % of the time
   the road team covered  62.50 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.09
  
   the favorite  covered  25.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  75.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -4.66
  
   the favorite won SU    50.00 % of the time
  
   Houston                 covered  37.50 % of the time
   Tulsa                   covered  62.50 % of the time
  
   Tulsa                   covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Tulsa                   covered  33.33 % of the time as home favorites

Our Pick (lean)

You can see from the above stats that there are conflicting trends in this one. Tulsa has covered at a 62% clip in this series. But it’s also been a series that leans heavily towards the underdog.

Our model has this one right on the number with Tulsa winning a 4 point decision but with such a huge difference in the quality of opponents each team has played, we really have to toss the models pick.

This looks like a good game to sit out and simply watch as we’ll learn more about both of these teams in this game.

We’ll lean slightly towards Tulsa here, simply because they are at home in a national TV game with the country watching. It’s also a revenge game as a result of their 2019 loss.

Tulsa -3.5