Houston at Tulsa
Tulsa will host Houston on Friday night as a -3.5 point home favorite. The current total early in the week is 57. Of the three college football games on Friday night, this one will have the most eyeballs as it’s being broadcast on ESPN.
Tulsa is a bit difficult to get a read on in the early going. They dropped their first game to UC Davis, known more for their hoops! They then lost a close one to Oklahoma State and hung with Ohio State. Last week they beat Arkansas State by a TD.
Houston is 3-1. They lost to Texas Tech and beat Rice, Grambling and Navy. So, nothing overly impressive for sure. Certainly Tulsa has looked more impressive losing than Houston has winning, based on the strength of their opponents.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games):
11/23/2019 Houston 24 + 3.0 at Tulsa 14
10/ 4/2018 Tulsa 26 +18.5 at Houston 41
10/14/2017 Houston 17 -13.5 at Tulsa 45
10/15/2016 Tulsa 31 +21.0 at Houston 38
10/ 3/2015 Houston 38 - 9.0 at Tulsa 24
11/22/2014 Tulsa 28 +21.0 at Houston 38
11/10/2012 Tulsa 41 - 3.5 at Houston 7
11/25/2011 Houston 48 - 3.0 at Tulsa 16
11/13/2010 Tulsa 28 + 2.5 at Houston 25
11/ 7/2009 Houston 46 - 1.5 at Tulsa 45
11/15/2008 Tulsa 30 - 4.0 at Houston 70
11/10/2007 Houston 7 + 2.5 at Tulsa 56
11/ 4/2006 Tulsa 10 - 2.5 at Houston 27
10/ 1/2005 Houston 30 + 3.5 at Tulsa 23
9/11/1993 Tulsa 38 + 3.5 at Houston 24
9/ 5/1992 Houston 25 - 2.0 at Tulsa 28
average outcome:
Houston 31.6 Tulsa 30.2
margin = -1.38
time-weighted average outcome:
Houston 30.8 Tulsa 27.7
margin = -3.06
average result when the home team is Tulsa
Houston 29.4 Tulsa 31.4
margin = 2.00
average result when the home team is Houston
Tulsa 29.0 Houston 33.8
margin = 4.75
21.43 % of games went Over
14.29 % went Over at Tulsa
(since 2005 )
average total points per game = 61.75
time-weighted average total = 58.50
the home team covered 37.50 % of the time
the road team covered 62.50 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.09
the favorite covered 25.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 75.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -4.66
the favorite won SU 50.00 % of the time
Houston covered 37.50 % of the time
Tulsa covered 62.50 % of the time
Tulsa covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Tulsa covered 33.33 % of the time as home favorites
Our Pick (lean)
You can see from the above stats that there are conflicting trends in this one. Tulsa has covered at a 62% clip in this series. But it’s also been a series that leans heavily towards the underdog.
Our model has this one right on the number with Tulsa winning a 4 point decision but with such a huge difference in the quality of opponents each team has played, we really have to toss the models pick.
This looks like a good game to sit out and simply watch as we’ll learn more about both of these teams in this game.
We’ll lean slightly towards Tulsa here, simply because they are at home in a national TV game with the country watching. It’s also a revenge game as a result of their 2019 loss.