Free Pick – Illinois at Purdue – College Football – 9/25/21

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illinois at purdue free cfb pick ats
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Illinois at Purdue

Purdue is at home Saturday to host Illinois in Big 10 Football action. Purdue is an 11 point favorite in the game with a total of 53. Kickoff is set for 3:30PM EST and the game can be seen on the Big 10 Network.

Purdue is 2-1 on the year with wins over Oregon State and UCONN and a loss last week to Notre Dame, 27-13.

Illinois is 1-3. They beat Nebraska to start their season but have since dropped three straight including a blowout loss to Virginia. They were at least competitive last week against Maryland, losing by just 3.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/31/2020  Purdue                   31  - 7.0  at Illinois                 24
10/26/2019  Illinois                 24  + 9.5  at Purdue                    6
10/13/2018  Purdue                   46  -10.0  at Illinois                  7
11/ 4/2017  Illinois                 10  +14.0  at Purdue                   29
10/ 8/2016  Purdue                   34  + 9.0  at Illinois                 31
11/ 7/2015  Illinois                 48  - 4.0  at Purdue                   14
10/ 4/2014  Purdue                   38  + 9.0  at Illinois                 27
11/23/2013  Illinois                 20  - 6.5  at Purdue                   16
11/17/2012  Purdue                   20  - 6.0  at Illinois                 17
10/22/2011  Illinois                 14  - 4.0  at Purdue                   21
10/30/2010  Purdue                   10  +17.0  at Illinois                 44
10/24/2009  Illinois                 14  +11.0  at Purdue                   24
11/11/2006  Purdue                   42  - 1.0  at Illinois                 31
11/12/2005  Illinois                  3  +23.0  at Purdue                   37
 9/25/2004  Purdue                   38  -18.5  at Illinois                 30
10/ 4/2003  Illinois                 10  +14.0  at Purdue                   43
10/12/2002  Purdue                   31  - 3.0  at Illinois                 38
11/ 3/2001  Illinois                 38  + 3.0  at Purdue                   13
10/24/1998  Illinois                  9  +24.0  at Purdue                   42
10/25/1997  Purdue                   48  -12.5  at Illinois                  3
10/ 1/1994  Purdue                   22  +17.0  at Illinois                 16
10/ 2/1993  Illinois                 28  + 5.0  at Purdue                   10
11/ 7/1992  Purdue                   17  + 2.5  at Illinois                 20
11/ 9/1991  Illinois                 41  - 6.5  at Purdue                   14
10/13/1990  Purdue                    0  +18.5  at Illinois                 34
  
   average outcome:
     Illinois                23.2  Purdue                  25.8
     margin =   2.60
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Illinois                22.3  Purdue                  27.0
     margin =   4.65
  
   average result when the home team is Purdue                 
     Illinois                21.6  Purdue                  22.4
     margin =   0.83
  
   average result when the home team is Illinois               
     Purdue                  29.0  Illinois                24.8
     margin =  -4.23
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
    33.33 % went Over at Purdue                 
    (since        2001 )
  
   average total points per game =  49.08
   time-weighted average total   =  49.26
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.94
  
   the favorite  covered  50.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.15
  
   the favorite won SU    68.00 % of the time
  
   Illinois                covered  50.00 % of the time
   Purdue                  covered  50.00 % of the time
  
   Purdue                  covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Purdue                  covered  50.00 % of the time as home favorites

Sometimes you have to look at a college football game and simply use a common sense approach. Score prediction models and algorithms are nice, but sometimes you just don’t have enough data to rely on them.

You can learn a lot about teams just by looking at their history against each other. In this case we can clearly see that Illinois and Purdue are generally equal when it comes to recruiting ability. These two programs are always going to have similar talent.

Last year 7 points separated these two teams. They each had over 450 yards of offense. First downs were even and time of possession was even. This is relevant because both teams return 9 on each side of the ball this year.  No reason not to expect a close game here, we’ll grab the generous spot with the Illini.

Illinois +11