Free Pick – Kansas State at Texas Tech – College Football – 10/23/21

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kansas state at texas tech cfb pick ats
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Texas Tech will host Kansas State on Saturday at 12 Noon EST in a game that will be broadcast on FOX Sports. The game is currently a “pick” with a total of 60.

Kansas State enters this game at 3-3 overall and 0-3 in conference play. They have come up short against the good teams they have played with their biggest win of the 3 coming against Stanford back in September.

Texas Tech is 5-2 overall and 2-2 in conference. They too, have come up short when they stepped up in class, getting hammered by both Texas and TCU. Their biggest win to date was 23-20 over West Virginia.

Head to Head History

10/ 3/2020  Texas Tech               21  + 2.5  at Kansas State             31
11/23/2019  Kansas State             30  + 2.5  at Texas Tech               27
11/17/2018  Texas Tech                6  - 6.5  at Kansas State             21
11/ 4/2017  Kansas State             42  + 3.5  at Texas Tech               35
10/ 8/2016  Texas Tech               38  +10.0  at Kansas State             44
11/14/2015  Kansas State             44  + 5.0  at Texas Tech               59
10/ 4/2014  Texas Tech               13  +14.0  at Kansas State             45
11/ 9/2013  Kansas State             49  + 2.5  at Texas Tech               26
10/27/2012  Texas Tech               24  + 7.0  at Kansas State             55
10/15/2011  Kansas State             41  + 3.5  at Texas Tech               34
10/10/2009  Kansas State             14  +16.0  at Texas Tech               66
10/ 4/2008  Texas Tech               58  - 7.0  at Kansas State             28
10/15/2005  Kansas State             20  +11.0  at Texas Tech               59
10/30/2004  Texas Tech               35  + 3.5  at Kansas State             25
10/13/2001  Kansas State             19  -11.0  at Texas Tech               38
10/21/2000  Texas Tech               23  +32.0  at Kansas State             28
11/ 1/1997  Kansas State             13  - 5.5  at Texas Tech                2
 8/31/1996  Texas Tech               14  + 6.5  at Kansas State             21
  
   average outcome:
     Kansas State            31.7  Texas Tech              32.1
     margin =   0.44
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Kansas State            35.4  Texas Tech              26.8
     margin =  -8.54
  
   average result when the home team is Texas Tech             
     Kansas State            30.2  Texas Tech              38.4
     margin =   8.22
  
   average result when the home team is Kansas State           
     Texas Tech              25.8  Kansas State            33.1
     margin =   7.33
  
    66.67 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at Texas Tech             
  
   average total points per game =  63.78
   time-weighted average total   =  62.17
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.81
  
   the favorite  covered  50.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.25
  
   the favorite won SU    61.11 % of the time
  
   Kansas State            covered  55.56 % of the time
   Texas Tech              covered  44.44 % of the time
  
   Texas Tech              covered  44.44 % of the time at home
   Texas Tech              covered  50.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Score prediction from our model using full season data and data from just the last 4 games.

Kansas State              -1.0          35           
Texas Tech                61.0          28
  
Kansas State              -1.0          32           
Texas Tech                61.0          29

Yards per play is a stat that gets a lot of usage and mentions in handicapping circles. Texas Tech ranks among the best in the nation as far as offensive yards per play. Unfortunately they can’t stop anyone defensively.

Look for the Kansas State running game to be the difference in this game as they slow the pace down and help keep the Tech offense off the field.

Kansas State +1